{"F": {"ts_code": "601615.SH", "name": "明阳智能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "风电设备", "sw3": "风电整机", "ind": "风电设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20190123", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.31, "pe_ttm": 130.6619, "pb": 0.8066, "dv_ttm": 1.8981, "total_mv": 2105453.4277, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.6, 21.4, 20.0, 11.2, 8.1, 10.3], "rev_series": [224.6, 271.6, 307.5, 278.6, 271.6, 380.9], "np_series": [13.7, 31.0, 34.5, 3.7, 3.5, 6.6], "roe_series": [12.8, 18.7, 14.9, 1.3, 1.3, 2.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 379.9, "np_ttm": 1.6, "ocf_ttm": -102.0, "fcf_ttm": -112.9, "fcf_yield": -53.6, "ocf_yield": -48.5, "gm_median": 11.2, "gm_std": 5.4, "gm_stab": 0.52, "gm_chg_2022": 1.4, "npm_median": 1.8, "roe_median": 2.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.6, "fix_assets": 190.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 0.81, "capex_dep": 0.75, "interest_debt": 241.3, "debt_ebitda": 10.8, "debt_ratio": 72.0, "debt_mv": 114.6, "payout": 202.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.4, "np_cagr3": -42.4, "rev_yoy": -0.6, "np_yoy": -81.8, "np_vol": 75.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 13.4, "fwd_pe2": 9.4, "fwd_g1": 873.0, "fwd_g2": 43.0, "peg": 0.31, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["风机及相关配件", 32.0], ["风力发电机组类", 32.0], ["电力生产与销售", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 17.9, "ret_prev2_year": 3.2, "ret_ytd": -34.9, "ret_pivot": 22.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -19.7, "ret_60": -21.9, "ret_120": -57.6, "ret_250": -27.5, "mdd_250": -64.2, "vol_250": 54.6, "pos_52w": 36.3}, "S": {"duration": 96, "pricing": 32, "hard": 31, "bondness": 74}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 130.7 倍,估值里约 96% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 20%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(9 篇研报)前瞻 PE 13.4 倍,次年 9.4 倍,PEG 0.31。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 20%,毛利率近 5 年中位 11.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -53.6%(经营现金流/市值 -48.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.2%,稳定度 52%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 20%,资本开支/折旧 0.75 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 130.7 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -28%,最大回撤 -64%,年化波动 55%,现价在 52 周高点的 36%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -20% / -22% / -58%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「风电设备」31 家中位:PE 32.3 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 17.3% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "明阳智能:PE 比行业中位高 98.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.7个百分点。"]}}