{"F": {"ts_code": "601611.SH", "name": "中国核建", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑装饰", "sw2": "基础建设", "sw3": "基建市政工程", "ind": "基础建设", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20160606", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.6, "pe_ttm": 29.6299, "pb": 1.4182, "dv_ttm": 0.566, "total_mv": 3194664.252, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [9.6, 9.9, 10.1, 11.4, 11.7, 12.1], "rev_series": [728.0, 837.2, 991.4, 1093.9, 1135.4, 1019.2], "np_series": [13.6, 15.3, 17.5, 20.6, 20.6, 13.2], "roe_series": [8.3, 8.2, 7.7, 7.7, 7.0, 4.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 924.1, "np_ttm": 10.8, "ocf_ttm": -4.0, "fcf_ttm": -20.5, "fcf_yield": -6.4, "ocf_yield": -1.2, "gm_median": 11.4, "gm_std": 0.9, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": 0.5, "npm_median": 2.5, "roe_median": 7.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 4.3, "fix_assets": 105.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.95, "capex_dep": 2.33, "interest_debt": 850.6, "debt_ebitda": 10.1, "debt_ratio": 78.9, "debt_mv": 266.3, "payout": 16.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 0.9, "np_cagr3": -9.1, "rev_yoy": -17.8, "np_yoy": -30.2, "np_vol": 19.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 83.0, "earn_yield": 3.4, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 22.1, "fwd_pe2": 20.5, "fwd_g1": 34.0, "fwd_g2": 8.0, "peg": 2.76, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 47.0], ["工程业务", 42.0], ["其他主营业务", 5.0], ["其他", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 51.1, "ret_prev2_year": 32.8, "ret_ytd": -21.1, "ret_pivot": 55.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.3, "ret_60": 1.8, "ret_120": -44.7, "ret_250": 11.3, "mdd_250": -51.2, "vol_250": 57.4, "pos_52w": 53.3}, "S": {"duration": 52, "pricing": 46, "hard": 7, "bondness": 43}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 29.6 倍、股息率 0.6%、毛利率近 5 年中位 11.4%、固定资产占比 4%、有息负债/EBITDA 10.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 4%,毛利率近 5 年中位 11.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -6.4%(经营现金流/市值 -1.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.4%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 4%,资本开支/折旧 2.33 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 29.6 倍 粗算,约 83%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 11%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 57%,现价在 52 周高点的 53%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -9% / 2% / -45%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「基础建设」40 家中位:PE 11.7 / 股息率 2.3% / 毛利率 12.4% / 固定资产占比 3% / 分红率 28%。", "中国核建:PE 比行业中位高 17.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.3个百分点。"]}}