{"F": {"ts_code": "601609.SH", "name": "金田股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "工业金属", "sw3": "铜", "ind": "工业金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200422", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.34, "pe_ttm": 28.0768, "pb": 2.261, "dv_ttm": 1.0173, "total_mv": 2306003.3588, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [4.1, 3.2, 2.0, 2.3, 2.4, 2.6], "rev_series": [468.3, 811.6, 1011.9, 1105.0, 1241.6, 1250.6], "np_series": [5.1, 7.4, 4.2, 5.3, 4.6, 7.5], "roe_series": [8.9, 10.4, 5.6, 6.7, 5.6, 8.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1450.7, "np_ttm": 8.2, "ocf_ttm": -22.1, "fcf_ttm": -32.8, "fcf_yield": -14.2, "ocf_yield": -9.6, "gm_median": 2.4, "gm_std": 0.4, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": -2.1, "npm_median": 0.5, "roe_median": 6.7, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 19.2, "fix_assets": 64.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.23, "capex_dep": 1.69, "interest_debt": 177.7, "debt_ebitda": 8.2, "debt_ratio": 68.7, "debt_mv": 77.1, "payout": 32.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.3, "np_cagr3": 21.4, "rev_yoy": 33.7, "np_yoy": 18.4, "np_vol": 36.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 82.0, "earn_yield": 3.6, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 21.7, "fwd_pe2": 17.1, "fwd_g1": 29.0, "fwd_g2": 27.0, "peg": 0.8, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 46.0], ["其他业务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 88.7, "ret_prev2_year": -11.7, "ret_ytd": 25.1, "ret_pivot": 188.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 27.7, "ret_60": 16.9, "ret_120": 28.4, "ret_250": 6.7, "mdd_250": -35.3, "vol_250": 50.6, "pos_52w": 93.5}, "S": {"duration": 50, "pricing": 70, "hard": 31, "bondness": 45}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 28.1 倍、股息率 1.0%、毛利率近 5 年中位 2.4%、固定资产占比 19%、有息负债/EBITDA 8.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 2.4%),硬资产占比 19%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -14.2%(经营现金流/市值 -9.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 2.4%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 1.69 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 28.1 倍 粗算,约 82%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 7%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 94%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 28% / 17% / 28%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工业金属」60 家中位:PE 20.5 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 10.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "金田股份:PE 比行业中位高 7.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.3个百分点。"]}}