{"F": {"ts_code": "601608.SH", "name": "中信重工", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "能源及重型设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20120706", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.8, "pe_ttm": 57.6258, "pb": 2.344, "dv_ttm": 0.6833, "total_mv": 2198185.632, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.1, 20.9, 16.2, 19.7, 22.7, 18.2], "rev_series": [63.2, 75.5, 88.3, 95.6, 80.3, 81.1], "np_series": [2.0, 2.3, 1.5, 3.8, 3.7, 3.8], "roe_series": [2.7, 3.1, 1.9, 4.9, 4.4, 4.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 81.5, "np_ttm": 3.8, "ocf_ttm": 17.3, "fcf_ttm": 15.5, "fcf_yield": 7.0, "ocf_yield": 7.9, "gm_median": 19.7, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -7.9, "npm_median": 4.1, "roe_median": 4.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.5, "fix_assets": 40.4, "goodwill_ratio": 3.1, "pb_calc": 2.34, "capex_dep": 0.77, "interest_debt": 15.4, "debt_ebitda": 1.9, "debt_ratio": 53.8, "debt_mv": 7.0, "payout": 34.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -2.8, "np_cagr3": 37.2, "rev_yoy": 1.1, "np_yoy": 3.0, "np_vol": 69.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.7, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 48.0, "fwd_pe2": 36.9, "fwd_g1": 20.0, "fwd_g2": 30.0, "peg": 1.6, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["重型装备板块", 26.0], ["矿山及重型装备", 26.0], ["特种材料", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 58.4, "ret_prev2_year": 9.8, "ret_ytd": -26.8, "ret_pivot": 45.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.8, "ret_60": -6.2, "ret_120": -32.1, "ret_250": -13.8, "mdd_250": -46.4, "vol_250": 46.3, "pos_52w": 58.6}, "S": {"duration": 76, "pricing": 45, "hard": 31, "bondness": 42}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 57.6 倍、股息率 0.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 19.7%、固定资产占比 20%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 20%,毛利率近 5 年中位 19.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.0%(经营现金流/市值 7.9%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.7%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 20%,资本开支/折旧 0.77 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 57.6 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -14%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -6% / -32%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "中信重工:PE 比行业中位高 15.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.5个百分点。"]}}