{"F": {"ts_code": "601606.SH", "name": "长城军工", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "地面兵装Ⅱ", "sw3": "地面兵装Ⅲ", "ind": "地面兵装Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20180806", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 34.81, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 11.7804, "dv_ttm": 0.0115, "total_mv": 2521039.0604, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.0, 23.8, 22.3, 22.9, -0.2, 25.7], "rev_series": [15.9, 17.0, 17.1, 16.1, 14.3, 15.6], "np_series": [1.2, 1.4, 0.8, 0.3, -3.6, 0.1], "roe_series": [5.0, 5.5, 3.1, 1.0, -15.0, 0.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.3, "np_ttm": -0.6, "ocf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_ttm": -1.2, "fcf_yield": -0.5, "ocf_yield": 0.3, "gm_median": 22.9, "gm_std": 9.6, "gm_stab": 0.58, "gm_chg_2022": -4.7, "npm_median": 1.6, "roe_median": 1.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 25.8, "fix_assets": 11.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 11.78, "capex_dep": 2.16, "interest_debt": 5.1, "debt_ebitda": 6.1, "debt_ratio": 52.3, "debt_mv": 2.0, "payout": 30.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -3.0, "np_cagr3": -52.9, "rev_yoy": -32.9, "np_yoy": -252.0, "np_vol": 587.3, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["装备制造", 51.0], ["民品", 46.0], ["其他业务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 309.3, "ret_prev2_year": -3.4, "ret_ytd": -27.7, "ret_pivot": 276.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.8, "ret_60": 10.5, "ret_120": -20.4, "ret_250": -44.0, "mdd_250": -65.2, "vol_250": 58.8, "pos_52w": 48.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 36, "hard": 41, "bondness": 46}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.6 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 52%,有息负债 5 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 26%,毛利率近 5 年中位 22.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.5%(经营现金流/市值 0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.9%,稳定度 58%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 26%,资本开支/折旧 2.16 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -44%,最大回撤 -65%,年化波动 59%,现价在 52 周高点的 48%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 10% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「地面兵装Ⅱ」12 家中位:PE 107.3 / 股息率 0.2% / 毛利率 28.6% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 42%。", "长城军工:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.2个百分点。"]}}