{"F": {"ts_code": "601601.SH", "name": "中国太保", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "非银金融", "sw2": "保险Ⅱ", "sw3": "保险Ⅲ", "ind": "保险Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20071225", "is_fin": true, "roles": {"fin": true, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 34.21, "pe_ttm": 5.8358, "pb": 1.0311, "dv_ttm": 3.3616, "total_mv": 32911188.2715, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [null, null, null, null, null, null], "rev_series": [4221.8, 4406.4, 4553.7, 3239.4, 4040.9, 4351.6], "np_series": [245.8, 268.3, 246.1, 272.6, 449.6, 535.0], "roe_series": [12.5, 12.1, 10.8, 11.4, 16.6, 18.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4468.0, "np_ttm": 564.0, "ocf_ttm": 1901.0, "fcf_ttm": 1868.3, "fcf_yield": 56.8, "ocf_yield": 57.8, "gm_median": null, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 8.6, "roe_median": 12.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.8, "fix_assets": 262.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.03, "capex_dep": 1.56, "interest_debt": 223.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 89.3, "debt_mv": 6.8, "payout": 23.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -1.5, "np_cagr3": 29.5, "rev_yoy": 5.8, "np_yoy": 10.4, "np_vol": 31.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 14.0, "earn_yield": 17.1, "consensus_n": 25, "fwd_pe": 5.7, "fwd_pe2": 5.3, "fwd_g1": 2.0, "fwd_g2": 8.0, "peg": 0.71, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 23.0], ["个人寿险", 15.0], ["人寿及健康保险", 11.0], ["财产保险", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 28.0, "ret_prev2_year": 55.1, "ret_ytd": -16.1, "ret_pivot": 20.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.7, "ret_60": 10.7, "ret_120": -10.0, "ret_250": -15.4, "mdd_250": -41.6, "vol_250": 33.5, "pos_52w": 73.2}, "S": {"duration": 14, "pricing": null, "hard": null, "bondness": 51}, "label": "金融·利差生意", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["中国太保 是保险Ⅱ。银行赚的是利差,券商保险赚的是资产端与费率,毛利率与固定资产两个轴对它没有意义。", "ROE 近 5 年中位 12.1%,PB 1.03倍,股息率 3.4%,分红率 23%。", "利率上行对银行是净息差扩张(少数受益方向);对保险是资产端浮亏、对券商是交投与融资成本。"], "加息期怎么走": "按笔记:日债/美债收益率上行期,银行股是例外的受益方向;红利型大行按'现金流红利'拿,盯息差而不盯黄金。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "金融业现金流表不适用;用盈利收益率 17.1%(1/PE)与股息率 3.4% 看。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 5.8 倍 粗算,约 14%(1 − 5/PE)。<40%,估值靠当期。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -15%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / 11% / -10%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「保险Ⅱ」5 家中位:PE 5.8 / 股息率 3.4% / 毛利率 — / 固定资产占比 1% / 分红率 23%。", "中国太保:PE 与行业中位持平;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 ;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}