{"F": {"ts_code": "601600.SH", "name": "中国铝业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "工业金属", "sw3": "铝", "ind": "工业金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20070430", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.67, "pe_ttm": 9.4929, "pb": 1.9631, "dv_ttm": 2.7922, "total_mv": 16588857.3438, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [8.2, 10.4, 11.5, 12.9, 15.8, 18.0], "rev_series": [1859.9, 2697.5, 2909.9, 2250.7, 2370.7, 2411.3], "np_series": [7.4, 50.8, 41.9, 67.2, 124.0, 126.7], "roe_series": [1.4, 9.1, 7.5, 11.7, 19.1, 17.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2501.5, "np_ttm": 174.7, "ocf_ttm": 460.9, "fcf_ttm": 380.0, "fcf_yield": 22.9, "ocf_yield": 27.8, "gm_median": 12.9, "gm_std": 2.8, "gm_stab": 0.78, "gm_chg_2022": 3.2, "npm_median": 5.6, "roe_median": 11.7, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 41.5, "fix_assets": 1015.3, "goodwill_ratio": 1.4, "pb_calc": 1.96, "capex_dep": 0.85, "interest_debt": 599.1, "debt_ebitda": 1.1, "debt_ratio": 42.8, "debt_mv": 36.1, "payout": 36.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -6.1, "np_cagr3": 44.6, "rev_yoy": 7.7, "np_yoy": 67.9, "np_vol": 217.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 47.0, "earn_yield": 10.5, "consensus_n": 10, "fwd_pe": 7.4, "fwd_pe2": 7.1, "fwd_g1": 28.0, "fwd_g2": 5.0, "peg": 1.48, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["贸易板块", 28.0], ["营销板块", 28.0], ["原铝板块", 24.0]], "ret_prev_year": 73.8, "ret_prev2_year": 36.9, "ret_ytd": -19.9, "ret_pivot": 48.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.3, "ret_60": -5.0, "ret_120": -30.6, "ret_250": 23.8, "mdd_250": -48.9, "vol_250": 53.7, "pos_52w": 62.2}, "S": {"duration": 21, "pricing": 70, "hard": 66, "bondness": 53}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 1015 亿,占总资产 42%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:铝 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 22.9%,股息率 2.8%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 47%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 42%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 22.9%(经营现金流/市值 27.8%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.9%,稳定度 78%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 42%,资本开支/折旧 0.85 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 9.5 倍 粗算,约 47%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 24%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / -5% / -31%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工业金属」60 家中位:PE 20.5 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 10.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "中国铝业:PE 比行业中位低 11.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 14.0个百分点。"]}}