{"F": {"ts_code": "601598.SH", "name": "中国外运", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "物流", "sw3": "跨境物流", "ind": "物流", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20190118", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.51, "pe_ttm": 12.2905, "pb": 1.1303, "dv_ttm": 4.6099, "total_mv": 4670112.0312, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [5.8, 4.5, 5.5, 5.7, 5.2, 5.7], "rev_series": [845.4, 1243.5, 1088.2, 1017.0, 1056.2, 968.1], "np_series": [27.5, 37.1, 40.7, 42.2, 39.2, 40.2], "roe_series": [9.4, 11.7, 12.0, 11.6, 10.1, 9.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 927.4, "np_ttm": 38.0, "ocf_ttm": 20.6, "fcf_ttm": 6.7, "fcf_yield": 1.4, "ocf_yield": 4.4, "gm_median": 5.5, "gm_std": 0.4, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -0.3, "npm_median": 4.0, "roe_median": 11.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 20.2, "fix_assets": 160.1, "goodwill_ratio": 1.9, "pb_calc": 1.13, "capex_dep": 1.04, "interest_debt": 107.1, "debt_ebitda": 2.1, "debt_ratio": 44.2, "debt_mv": 22.9, "payout": 53.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -3.8, "np_cagr3": -0.4, "rev_yoy": -8.1, "np_yoy": -11.4, "np_vol": 14.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 59.0, "earn_yield": 8.1, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 12.8, "fwd_pe2": 12.2, "fwd_g1": -4.0, "fwd_g2": 5.0, "peg": 2.56, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 38.0], ["代理及相关业务", 24.0], ["代理及相关", 24.0], ["专业物流", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 20.4, "ret_prev2_year": 8.9, "ret_ytd": 10.2, "ret_pivot": 58.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.6, "ret_60": 17.0, "ret_120": 11.0, "ret_250": 22.8, "mdd_250": -33.9, "vol_250": 33.6, "pos_52w": 86.8}, "S": {"duration": 26, "pricing": 42, "hard": 32, "bondness": 73}, "label": "债券代理股", "tags": ["现金流红利", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["现金流像票息:近 5 年净利润增速波动 14个百分点,营收 3 年复合 -3.8%,利润在窄区间里波动。", "分红率 54%、股息率 4.6%,每年派多少钱几乎可以预测。", "杠杆:有息负债 107 亿,有息负债/EBITDA 2.1 倍,资产负债率 44%。利率升财务费用直接吃利润。", "定价方式是利差:市场看的是股息率 4.6% 比十年期国债高多少。PE 12.3 倍 倒过来就是 8.1% 的盈利收益率,这是债的定价。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 20%,毛利率近 5 年中位 5.5%。 另外它被市场当长债替代品交易:利率上行时跟长债一起跌,不跟硬资产一起涨,这个标签贴错会亏钱。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期跟长债走,承压;国内降息周期反而受益。拿它盯国内十年期国债收益率,不要盯黄金和美元。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.4%(经营现金流/市值 4.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 5.5%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 20%,资本开支/折旧 1.04 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 12.3 倍 粗算,约 59%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 23%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 87%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 17% / 11%。 债券代理股的波动应该低;波动偏高,市场没完全把它当债。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「物流」48 家中位:PE 21.4 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 10.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 43%。", "中国外运:PE 比行业中位低 9.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.6个百分点。"]}}