{"F": {"ts_code": "601595.SH", "name": "上海电影", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "影视院线", "sw3": "影视动漫制作", "ind": "影视院线", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20160817", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 18.75, "pe_ttm": 112.9631, "pb": 5.0307, "dv_ttm": 0.5387, "total_mv": 840375.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [-2.8, 10.1, -10.7, 22.8, 23.4, 33.5], "rev_series": [3.1, 7.3, 3.7, 8.0, 6.9, 9.2], "np_series": [-4.3, 0.2, -3.3, 1.3, 0.9, 1.1], "roe_series": [-19.1, 1.1, -19.1, 7.9, 5.5, 6.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.7, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 4.1, "fcf_ttm": 3.8, "fcf_yield": 4.5, "ocf_yield": 4.9, "gm_median": 22.8, "gm_std": 15.2, "gm_stab": 0.33, "gm_chg_2022": -7.8, "npm_median": 16.3, "roe_median": 5.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.6, "fix_assets": 1.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.4, "pb_calc": 5.03, "capex_dep": 1.34, "interest_debt": 3.3, "debt_ebitda": 1.3, "debt_ratio": 35.1, "debt_mv": 3.9, "payout": 40.7, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 35.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -12.4, "np_yoy": -71.6, "np_vol": 678.9, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 83.3, "fwd_pe2": 53.8, "fwd_g1": 36.0, "fwd_g2": 55.0, "peg": 1.51, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["电影放映及其他", 22.0], ["电影放映", 22.0], ["知识产权转授权及影视片制作", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 16.2, "ret_prev2_year": -3.6, "ret_ytd": -34.4, "ret_pivot": 7.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.9, "ret_60": 5.9, "ret_120": -26.9, "ret_250": -41.8, "mdd_250": -56.1, "vol_250": 43.4, "pos_52w": 52.5}, "S": {"duration": 94, "pricing": 27, "hard": 11, "bondness": 21}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 113.0 倍,估值里约 96% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 7%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(5 篇研报)前瞻 PE 83.3 倍,次年 53.8 倍,PEG 1.51。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 7%,毛利率近 5 年中位 22.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.5%(经营现金流/市值 4.9%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.8%,稳定度 33%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 7%,资本开支/折旧 1.34 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 113.0 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -42%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 52%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 6% / -27%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「影视院线」19 家中位:PE 84.8 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 22.8% / 固定资产占比 6% / 分红率 40%。", "上海电影:PE 比行业中位高 28.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 与行业中位持平;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点。"]}}