{"F": {"ts_code": "601588.SH", "name": "北辰实业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "房地产", "sw2": "房地产开发", "sw3": "住宅开发", "ind": "房地产开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20061016", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 1.77, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.0236, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 595962.54, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.0, 20.5, 20.5, 27.4, 26.1, 32.7], "rev_series": [180.0, 220.9, 129.9, 157.5, 71.5, 60.6], "np_series": [2.7, 2.0, -15.8, 0.7, -28.3, -29.9], "roe_series": [1.6, 1.2, -11.2, 0.5, -25.1, -36.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 60.9, "np_ttm": -22.8, "ocf_ttm": 14.0, "fcf_ttm": 13.4, "fcf_yield": 22.4, "ocf_yield": 23.6, "gm_median": 26.1, "gm_std": 4.6, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": -3.4, "npm_median": -12.7, "roe_median": -11.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 5.8, "fix_assets": 24.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.02, "capex_dep": 0.48, "interest_debt": 242.8, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 80.4, "debt_mv": 407.5, "payout": 100.0, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -22.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 0.9, "np_yoy": 44.5, "np_vol": 1659.7, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["房地产开发", 28.0], ["出售开发产品业务", 28.0], ["投资物业和酒店业务", 20.0], ["会展及配套设施服务", 20.0]], "ret_prev_year": -6.5, "ret_prev2_year": -1.1, "ret_ytd": 1.7, "ret_pivot": 23.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.4, "ret_60": -7.8, "ret_120": -5.9, "ret_250": -8.3, "mdd_250": -27.9, "vol_250": 40.8, "pos_52w": 79.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 47, "hard": 9, "bondness": 58}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -22.8 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 80%,有息负债 243 亿,经营现金流/市值 23.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 6%,毛利率近 5 年中位 26.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 22.4%(经营现金流/市值 23.6%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.1%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 0.48 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -8%,最大回撤 -28%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 80%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / -8% / -6%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「房地产开发」83 家中位:PE 26.0 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 21.1% / 固定资产占比 2% / 分红率 36%。", "北辰实业:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.8个百分点。"]}}