{"F": {"ts_code": "601579.SH", "name": "会稽山", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "非白酒", "sw3": "其他酒类", "ind": "非白酒", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20140825", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 24.07, "pe_ttm": 41.3036, "pb": 3.0743, "dv_ttm": 1.223, "total_mv": 1154068.4038, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [44.4, 41.4, 42.8, 46.9, 52.1, 56.7], "rev_series": [11.1, 12.5, 12.3, 14.1, 16.3, 18.2], "np_series": [2.9, 2.8, 1.4, 1.7, 2.0, 2.4], "roe_series": [8.9, 8.1, 4.0, 4.5, 5.3, 6.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 18.6, "np_ttm": 2.8, "ocf_ttm": 2.9, "fcf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_yield": 1.3, "ocf_yield": 2.5, "gm_median": 46.9, "gm_std": 5.7, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -1.5, "npm_median": 12.1, "roe_median": 5.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.8, "fix_assets": 14.8, "goodwill_ratio": 4.5, "pb_calc": 3.07, "capex_dep": 1.38, "interest_debt": 1.7, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 18.7, "debt_mv": 1.5, "payout": 60.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 14.1, "np_cagr3": 19.1, "rev_yoy": 4.4, "np_yoy": 37.0, "np_vol": 26.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 88.0, "earn_yield": 2.4, "consensus_n": 13, "fwd_pe": 38.5, "fwd_pe2": 31.6, "fwd_g1": 7.0, "fwd_g2": 22.0, "peg": 1.75, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["黄酒", 44.0], ["中高档酒", 35.0], ["普通黄酒及其他酒", 9.0], ["其他", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 92.8, "ret_prev2_year": 5.4, "ret_ytd": 20.5, "ret_pivot": 187.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 59.9, "ret_60": 56.2, "ret_120": 42.5, "ret_250": 5.1, "mdd_250": -47.3, "vol_250": 46.7, "pos_52w": 90.8}, "S": {"duration": 64, "pricing": 61, "hard": 51, "bondness": 35}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 15 亿,占总资产 32%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 46.9%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.5 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 1.3%,股息率 1.2%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 88%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 32%)和定价权(毛利率 46.9% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.3%(经营现金流/市值 2.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 46.9%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 1.38 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 41.3 倍 粗算,约 88%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 5%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 91%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 60% / 56% / 42%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「非白酒」16 家中位:PE 22.9 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 40.5% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 60%。", "会稽山:PE 比行业中位高 18.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.2个百分点。"]}}