{"F": {"ts_code": "601566.SH", "name": "九牧王", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "纺织服饰", "sw2": "服装家纺", "sw3": "非运动服装", "ind": "服装家纺", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110530", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.51, "pe_ttm": 37.7612, "pb": 1.6084, "dv_ttm": 4.7574, "total_mv": 603943.6972, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [59.4, 60.1, 59.5, 63.6, 65.0, 65.6], "rev_series": [26.7, 30.5, 26.2, 30.5, 31.8, 29.8], "np_series": [3.7, 1.9, -0.9, 1.9, 1.8, 2.9], "roe_series": [8.7, 4.7, -2.4, 5.0, 4.5, 7.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 30.3, "np_ttm": 1.6, "ocf_ttm": 5.2, "fcf_ttm": 4.7, "fcf_yield": 7.8, "ocf_yield": 8.6, "gm_median": 63.6, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": 0.1, "npm_median": 6.0, "roe_median": 4.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 5.8, "fix_assets": 2.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.61, "capex_dep": 0.86, "interest_debt": 3.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.7, "debt_ratio": 25.6, "debt_mv": 5.0, "payout": 96.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 3.9, "np_yoy": -77.2, "np_vol": 152.4, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 87.0, "earn_yield": 2.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["男裤", 24.0], ["茄克", 11.0], ["T恤", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 65.7, "ret_prev2_year": -14.2, "ret_ytd": -16.7, "ret_pivot": 78.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 25.3, "ret_60": 6.3, "ret_120": 1.1, "ret_250": 19.6, "mdd_250": -58.3, "vol_250": 58.6, "pos_52w": 58.7}, "S": {"duration": 61, "pricing": 73, "hard": 9, "bondness": 80}, "label": "轻资产现金牛", "tags": ["现金流红利", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["固定资产占比 6%,毛利率近 5 年中位 63.6%,自由现金流/市值 7.8%:现金机器,久期短。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 63.6%),硬资产占比 6%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "久期短、无杠杆,加息期相对安全;放水期跑不过科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.8%(经营现金流/市值 8.6%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 63.6%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.1 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 0.86 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 37.8 倍 粗算,约 87%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 20%,最大回撤 -58%,年化波动 59%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 25% / 6% / 1%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「服装家纺」60 家中位:PE 37.6 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 41.5% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 66%。", "九牧王:PE 比行业中位高 0.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 22.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.3个百分点。"]}}