{"F": {"ts_code": "601519.SH", "name": "大智慧", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "垂直应用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110128", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.95, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 13.7924, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1780298.2, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [64.7, 65.9, 59.5, 59.1, 60.0, 64.0], "rev_series": [7.1, 8.2, 7.8, 7.8, 7.7, 8.3], "np_series": [0.7, 0.2, -0.9, 1.0, -2.0, -0.4], "roe_series": [4.9, 1.0, -5.5, 6.2, -12.9, -3.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.5, "np_ttm": -0.7, "ocf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.0, "fcf_yield": -0.0, "ocf_yield": 0.1, "gm_median": 60.0, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -5.2, "npm_median": -5.3, "roe_median": -3.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 1.9, "fix_assets": 0.3, "goodwill_ratio": 16.8, "pb_calc": 13.79, "capex_dep": 0.89, "interest_debt": 0.5, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 26.5, "debt_mv": 0.3, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 1.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 6.8, "np_yoy": -707.8, "np_vol": 304.2, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 39.1, "ret_prev2_year": 25.3, "ret_ytd": -30.5, "ret_pivot": 53.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.1, "ret_60": 7.8, "ret_120": -20.3, "ret_250": -48.0, "mdd_250": -57.2, "vol_250": 44.6, "pos_52w": 51.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 67, "hard": 3, "bondness": 21}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "商誉占比高"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.7 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 26%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 60.0%),硬资产占比 2%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.0%(经营现金流/市值 0.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 60.0%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 2%,资本开支/折旧 0.89 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -48%,最大回撤 -57%,年化波动 45%,现价在 52 周高点的 51%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 8% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "大智慧:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 11.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.9个百分点。"]}}