{"F": {"ts_code": "601518.SH", "name": "吉林高速", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "铁路公路", "sw3": "高速公路", "ind": "铁路公路", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100319", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.88, "pe_ttm": 11.2087, "pb": 0.9566, "dv_ttm": 4.5139, "total_mv": 544479.3216, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.2, 47.0, 45.8, 56.6, 52.7, 54.1], "rev_series": [8.5, 12.7, 14.6, 14.5, 14.8, 13.7], "np_series": [1.0, 3.2, 3.9, 5.5, 5.4, 4.9], "roe_series": [2.7, 8.1, 9.2, 11.5, 10.4, 8.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.4, "np_ttm": 4.9, "ocf_ttm": 8.1, "fcf_ttm": 7.9, "fcf_yield": 14.5, "ocf_yield": 14.9, "gm_median": 52.7, "gm_std": 4.2, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": 17.6, "npm_median": 39.2, "roe_median": 9.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 55.2, "fix_assets": 38.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.96, "capex_dep": 0.09, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 12.1, "debt_mv": 0.3, "payout": 50.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -2.1, "np_cagr3": 7.6, "rev_yoy": -5.1, "np_yoy": -2.2, "np_vol": 84.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 55.0, "earn_yield": 8.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 4.9, "ret_prev2_year": 14.3, "ret_ytd": 7.1, "ret_pivot": 37.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.3, "ret_60": 1.8, "ret_120": -1.4, "ret_250": 9.1, "mdd_250": -12.7, "vol_250": 24.5, "pos_52w": 94.1}, "S": {"duration": 24, "pricing": 70, "hard": 88, "bondness": 65}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 50%、股息率 4.5%、营收 3 年复合 -2.1%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 55%、毛利率 52.7% 看起来两条都占,但价格受管制(铁路公路:电价/通行费/港口费由主管部门或市场化机制定),高毛利来自成本结构不是提价能力。通胀来了它不能提价,利润跟不上通胀,所以不算。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 14.5%(经营现金流/市值 14.9%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 52.7%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 17.6 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 55%,资本开支/折旧 0.09 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 11.2 倍 粗算,约 55%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 9%,最大回撤 -13%,年化波动 24%,现价在 52 周高点的 94%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 2% / -1%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「铁路公路」33 家中位:PE 15.4 / 股息率 3.2% / 毛利率 32.2% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 48%。", "吉林高速:PE 比行业中位低 4.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 20.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 34.2个百分点。"]}}