{"F": {"ts_code": "601515.SH", "name": "衢州东峰", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "包装印刷", "sw3": "纸包装", "ind": "包装印刷", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20120216", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.32, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.3278, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 638924.2724, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.1, 31.6, 29.6, 23.0, 17.8, 7.9], "rev_series": [30.7, 38.1, 37.4, 26.3, 14.2, 12.7], "np_series": [5.5, 7.9, 2.9, 1.5, -4.9, -4.5], "roe_series": [12.9, 15.1, 5.0, 2.7, -8.9, -8.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 14.1, "np_ttm": -4.4, "ocf_ttm": -1.0, "fcf_ttm": -2.4, "fcf_yield": -3.8, "ocf_yield": -1.6, "gm_median": 23.0, "gm_std": 8.6, "gm_stab": 0.63, "gm_chg_2022": -7.5, "npm_median": 5.7, "roe_median": 2.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 27.9, "fix_assets": 16.8, "goodwill_ratio": 1.4, "pb_calc": 1.33, "capex_dep": 0.87, "interest_debt": 3.3, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 20.7, "debt_mv": 5.2, "payout": 31.2, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -30.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 23.3, "np_yoy": 4.9, "np_vol": 168.6, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": 332.0, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["膜类新材料", 22.0], ["医药包装", 20.0], ["纸品", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 8.0, "ret_prev2_year": -0.9, "ret_ytd": -22.8, "ret_pivot": 40.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.9, "ret_60": -9.5, "ret_120": -28.0, "ret_250": -30.4, "mdd_250": -41.1, "vol_250": 43.5, "pos_52w": 64.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 37, "hard": 45, "bondness": 34}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -4.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 21%,有息负债 3 亿,经营现金流/市值 -1.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 28%,毛利率近 5 年中位 23.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.8%(经营现金流/市值 -1.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.0%,稳定度 63%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 28%,资本开支/折旧 0.87 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -30%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -10% / -28%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「包装印刷」46 家中位:PE 38.9 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 50%。", "衢州东峰:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.9个百分点。"]}}