{"F": {"ts_code": "601512.SH", "name": "中新集团", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "房地产", "sw2": "房地产开发", "sw3": "产业地产", "ind": "房地产开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20191220", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.59, "pe_ttm": 13.2035, "pb": 0.8308, "dv_ttm": 2.468, "total_mv": 1287546.51, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [64.2, 59.9, 57.6, 50.8, 50.4, 44.2], "rev_series": [34.1, 39.2, 47.4, 36.6, 26.9, 32.1], "np_series": [13.1, 15.2, 16.1, 13.6, 6.4, 10.6], "roe_series": [12.3, 13.1, 12.6, 9.9, 4.4, 7.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 22.2, "np_ttm": 9.8, "ocf_ttm": 11.6, "fcf_ttm": 5.9, "fcf_yield": 4.6, "ocf_yield": 9.0, "gm_median": 50.8, "gm_std": 5.6, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -6.6, "npm_median": 41.8, "roe_median": 9.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.3, "fix_assets": 30.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.83, "capex_dep": 2.79, "interest_debt": 89.7, "debt_ebitda": 8.8, "debt_ratio": 43.5, "debt_mv": 69.7, "payout": 30.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -12.2, "np_cagr3": -13.1, "rev_yoy": -47.5, "np_yoy": -13.7, "np_vol": 39.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 62.0, "earn_yield": 7.6, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 11.8, "fwd_pe2": 11.3, "fwd_g1": 11.0, "fwd_g2": 5.0, "peg": 2.36, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["提供服务", 22.0], ["租赁业务", 18.0], ["销售商品", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 19.7, "ret_prev2_year": 3.4, "ret_ytd": -2.3, "ret_pivot": 38.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.4, "ret_60": 7.7, "ret_120": -5.3, "ret_250": 8.9, "mdd_250": -33.6, "vol_250": 41.1, "pos_52w": 77.1}, "S": {"duration": 28, "pricing": 60, "hard": 13, "bondness": 60}, "label": "轻资产现金牛", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["固定资产占比 8%,毛利率近 5 年中位 50.8%,自由现金流/市值 4.6%:现金机器,久期短。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 50.8%),硬资产占比 8%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "久期短、无杠杆,加息期相对安全;放水期跑不过科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.6%(经营现金流/市值 9.0%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 50.8%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 2.79 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 13.2 倍 粗算,约 62%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 9%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 77%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / 8% / -5%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「房地产开发」83 家中位:PE 26.0 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 21.1% / 固定资产占比 2% / 分红率 36%。", "中新集团:PE 比行业中位低 12.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 29.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.3个百分点。"]}}