{"F": {"ts_code": "601500.SH", "name": "通用股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "轮胎轮毂", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20160919", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.96, "pe_ttm": 22.7773, "pb": 1.0428, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 626868.2772, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.1, 10.0, 10.5, 15.7, 16.4, 13.1], "rev_series": [34.5, 42.6, 41.2, 50.6, 69.6, 85.0], "np_series": [0.9, 0.1, 0.2, 2.2, 3.7, 2.0], "roe_series": [2.5, 0.3, 0.4, 4.4, 6.5, 3.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 89.4, "np_ttm": 2.8, "ocf_ttm": 17.1, "fcf_ttm": 7.7, "fcf_yield": 12.3, "ocf_yield": 27.4, "gm_median": 13.1, "gm_std": 2.6, "gm_stab": 0.8, "gm_chg_2022": -2.6, "npm_median": 2.4, "roe_median": 3.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 60.5, "fix_assets": 86.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.04, "capex_dep": 1.62, "interest_debt": 55.5, "debt_ebitda": 4.7, "debt_ratio": 57.7, "debt_mv": 88.6, "payout": 40.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 27.3, "np_cagr3": 128.1, "rev_yoy": 11.2, "np_yoy": 114.8, "np_vol": 475.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 78.0, "earn_yield": 4.4, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 16.9, "fwd_pe2": 12.7, "fwd_g1": 35.0, "fwd_g2": 32.0, "peg": 0.53, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["半钢轮胎", 35.0], ["全钢轮胎", 15.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": -9.6, "ret_prev2_year": 30.5, "ret_ytd": -17.8, "ret_pivot": -9.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.7, "ret_60": 0.3, "ret_120": -11.6, "ret_250": -16.5, "mdd_250": -27.1, "vol_250": 25.2, "pos_52w": 79.4}, "S": {"duration": 43, "pricing": 40, "hard": 97, "bondness": 28}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["成长兑现", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 60%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 13.1%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.6 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 4.7 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 60%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 13.1%,稳定度 80%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 12.3%(经营现金流/市值 27.4%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.1%,稳定度 80%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 60%,资本开支/折旧 1.62 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 22.8 倍 粗算,约 78%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,最大回撤 -27%,年化波动 25%,现价在 52 周高点的 79%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / 0% / -12%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "通用股份:PE 比行业中位低 7.4倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 35.0个百分点。"]}}