{"F": {"ts_code": "601456.SH", "name": "国联民生", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "非银金融", "sw2": "证券Ⅱ", "sw3": "证券Ⅲ", "ind": "证券Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200731", "is_fin": true, "roles": {"fin": true, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.93, "pe_ttm": 22.0827, "pb": 0.9667, "dv_ttm": 0.6719, "total_mv": 5072769.3704, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [null, null, null, null, null, null], "rev_series": [18.8, 29.7, 26.2, 29.6, 26.8, 76.7], "np_series": [5.9, 8.9, 7.7, 6.7, 4.0, 20.1], "roe_series": [6.3, 6.6, 4.6, 3.9, 2.2, 5.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 82.3, "np_ttm": 23.0, "ocf_ttm": -54.6, "fcf_ttm": -57.9, "fcf_yield": -11.4, "ocf_yield": -10.8, "gm_median": null, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 26.5, "roe_median": 4.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.2, "fix_assets": 5.6, "goodwill_ratio": 5.7, "pb_calc": 0.97, "capex_dep": 3.49, "interest_debt": 412.8, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 78.5, "debt_mv": 81.4, "payout": 40.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 43.0, "np_cagr3": 37.8, "rev_yoy": 13.9, "np_yoy": 25.6, "np_vol": 166.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 77.0, "earn_yield": 4.5, "consensus_n": 11, "fwd_pe": 21.7, "fwd_pe2": 19.4, "fwd_g1": 2.0, "fwd_g2": 12.0, "peg": 1.81, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 20.0], ["手续费及佣金收入合计", 13.0], ["手续费及佣金净收入", 11.0], ["投资收益", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": -24.6, "ret_prev2_year": 26.7, "ret_ytd": -11.7, "ret_pivot": -6.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.3, "ret_60": -3.4, "ret_120": -4.7, "ret_250": -26.6, "mdd_250": -29.8, "vol_250": 22.4, "pos_52w": 73.4}, "S": {"duration": 42, "pricing": null, "hard": null, "bondness": 21}, "label": "金融·利差生意", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["国联民生 是证券Ⅱ。银行赚的是利差,券商保险赚的是资产端与费率,毛利率与固定资产两个轴对它没有意义。", "ROE 近 5 年中位 4.6%,PB 0.97倍,股息率 0.7%,分红率 40%。", "利率上行对银行是净息差扩张(少数受益方向);对保险是资产端浮亏、对券商是交投与融资成本。"], "加息期怎么走": "按笔记:日债/美债收益率上行期,银行股是例外的受益方向;红利型大行按'现金流红利'拿,盯息差而不盯黄金。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "金融业现金流表不适用;用盈利收益率 4.5%(1/PE)与股息率 0.7% 看。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 22.1 倍 粗算,约 77%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -27%,最大回撤 -30%,年化波动 22%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / -3% / -5%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「证券Ⅱ」50 家中位:PE 15.7 / 股息率 1.9% / 毛利率 10.2% / 固定资产占比 0% / 分红率 33%。", "国联民生:PE 比行业中位高 6.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.2个百分点;毛利率 ;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点。"]}}