{"F": {"ts_code": "601399.SH", "name": "国机重装", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "能源及重型设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200608", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.2, "pe_ttm": 47.7805, "pb": 1.5409, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 2308337.888, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [15.0, 15.5, 14.4, 16.8, 15.1, 16.0], "rev_series": [88.2, 95.1, 96.6, 112.6, 126.7, 138.8], "np_series": [3.4, 3.9, 4.0, 4.3, 4.3, 4.6], "roe_series": [2.7, 3.1, 3.1, 3.2, 3.1, 3.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 140.1, "np_ttm": 4.8, "ocf_ttm": -4.7, "fcf_ttm": -16.8, "fcf_yield": -7.3, "ocf_yield": -2.0, "gm_median": 15.5, "gm_std": 0.8, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -0.6, "npm_median": 3.9, "roe_median": 3.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.0, "fix_assets": 40.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.54, "capex_dep": 3.98, "interest_debt": 9.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.7, "debt_ratio": 53.6, "debt_mv": 3.9, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 12.8, "np_cagr3": 4.8, "rev_yoy": 1.9, "np_yoy": 8.1, "np_vol": 5.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 2.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 55.2, "ret_prev2_year": 8.8, "ret_ytd": -33.1, "ret_pivot": 23.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.6, "ret_60": -10.1, "ret_120": -35.4, "ret_250": -6.2, "mdd_250": -52.4, "vol_250": 46.1, "pos_52w": 49.9}, "S": {"duration": 70, "pricing": 48, "hard": 19, "bondness": 9}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 47.8 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 15.5%、固定资产占比 12%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.7 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 12%,毛利率近 5 年中位 15.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -7.3%(经营现金流/市值 -2.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.5%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 3.98 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 47.8 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -6%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 50%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -10% / -35%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "国机重装:PE 比行业中位高 5.5倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.0个百分点。"]}}