{"F": {"ts_code": "601390.SH", "name": "中国中铁", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑装饰", "sw2": "基础建设", "sw3": "基建市政工程", "ind": "基础建设", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20071203", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.39, "pe_ttm": 5.4608, "pb": 0.3335, "dv_ttm": 3.8402, "total_mv": 10769245.2217, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [9.9, 10.0, 9.8, 10.0, 9.8, 9.3], "rev_series": [9714.0, 10704.2, 11515.0, 12608.4, 11574.4, 10906.3], "np_series": [251.9, 276.2, 312.8, 334.8, 278.9, 228.9], "roe_series": [10.6, 10.4, 10.9, 10.6, 8.1, 6.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10512.9, "np_ttm": 197.2, "ocf_ttm": 217.4, "fcf_ttm": -432.2, "fcf_yield": -40.1, "ocf_yield": 20.2, "gm_median": 9.8, "gm_std": 0.2, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": -0.1, "npm_median": 2.8, "roe_median": 10.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.2, "fix_assets": 1519.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 0.28, "capex_dep": 6.07, "interest_debt": 6317.9, "debt_ebitda": 10.0, "debt_ratio": 77.4, "debt_mv": 586.7, "payout": 16.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -1.8, "np_cagr3": -9.9, "rev_yoy": -7.7, "np_yoy": -26.8, "np_vol": 13.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 8.0, "earn_yield": 18.3, "consensus_n": 20, "fwd_pe": 5.1, "fwd_pe2": 5.0, "fwd_g1": 8.0, "fwd_g2": 1.0, "peg": 5.1, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["基础设施建设", 42.0], ["其他", 4.0], ["装备制造", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -11.9, "ret_prev2_year": 18.0, "ret_ytd": -17.5, "ret_pivot": -9.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.0, "ret_60": 0.4, "ret_120": -25.0, "ret_250": -22.6, "mdd_250": -34.3, "vol_250": 27.3, "pos_52w": 70.6}, "S": {"duration": 13, "pricing": 47, "hard": 10, "bondness": 64}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 5.5 倍、股息率 3.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 9.8%、固定资产占比 6%、有息负债/EBITDA 10.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 6%,毛利率近 5 年中位 9.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -40.1%(经营现金流/市值 20.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 9.8%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 6.07 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 5.5 倍 粗算,约 8%(1 − 5/PE)。<40%,估值靠当期。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -23%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 27%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / 0% / -25%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「基础建设」40 家中位:PE 11.7 / 股息率 2.3% / 毛利率 12.4% / 固定资产占比 3% / 分红率 28%。", "中国中铁:PE 比行业中位低 6.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.2个百分点。"]}}