{"F": {"ts_code": "601375.SH", "name": "中原证券", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "非银金融", "sw2": "证券Ⅱ", "sw3": "证券Ⅲ", "ind": "证券Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170103", "is_fin": true, "roles": {"fin": true, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.14, "pe_ttm": 31.2647, "pb": 1.3071, "dv_ttm": 0.7246, "total_mv": 1922154.2658, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [null, null, null, null, null, null], "rev_series": [31.0, 44.2, 18.8, 19.7, 16.9, 19.6], "np_series": [1.0, 5.1, 1.1, 2.1, 2.5, 4.6], "roe_series": [0.9, 3.8, 0.8, 1.5, 1.8, 3.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 23.0, "np_ttm": 6.1, "ocf_ttm": 78.0, "fcf_ttm": 75.9, "fcf_yield": 39.5, "ocf_yield": 40.6, "gm_median": null, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 12.5, "roe_median": 1.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.8, "fix_assets": 5.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.31, "capex_dep": 5.9, "interest_debt": 68.1, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 76.0, "debt_mv": 35.4, "payout": 30.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 1.4, "np_cagr3": 62.3, "rev_yoy": 37.0, "np_yoy": 61.1, "np_vol": 157.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 84.0, "earn_yield": 3.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 20.0], ["手续费及佣金净收入：手续费及佣金收入", 12.0], ["证券经纪业务", 9.0], ["手续费及佣金净收入：证券经纪业务净收入：证券经纪", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 0.1, "ret_prev2_year": 13.6, "ret_ytd": -3.2, "ret_pivot": 20.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.0, "ret_60": 11.4, "ret_120": -2.1, "ret_250": -13.4, "mdd_250": -22.2, "vol_250": 23.9, "pos_52w": 86.6}, "S": {"duration": 54, "pricing": null, "hard": null, "bondness": 37}, "label": "金融·利差生意", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["中原证券 是证券Ⅱ。银行赚的是利差,券商保险赚的是资产端与费率,毛利率与固定资产两个轴对它没有意义。", "ROE 近 5 年中位 1.8%,PB 1.31倍,股息率 0.7%,分红率 30%。", "利率上行对银行是净息差扩张(少数受益方向);对保险是资产端浮亏、对券商是交投与融资成本。"], "加息期怎么走": "按笔记:日债/美债收益率上行期,银行股是例外的受益方向;红利型大行按'现金流红利'拿,盯息差而不盯黄金。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "金融业现金流表不适用;用盈利收益率 3.2%(1/PE)与股息率 0.7% 看。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 31.3 倍 粗算,约 84%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -13%,最大回撤 -22%,年化波动 24%,现价在 52 周高点的 87%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 11% / -2%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「证券Ⅱ」50 家中位:PE 15.7 / 股息率 1.9% / 毛利率 10.2% / 固定资产占比 0% / 分红率 33%。", "中原证券:PE 比行业中位高 15.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.2个百分点;毛利率 ;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点。"]}}