{"F": {"ts_code": "601368.SH", "name": "绿城水务", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "环保", "sw2": "环境治理", "sw3": "水务及水治理", "ind": "环境治理", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150612", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.53, "pe_ttm": 32.6, "pb": 0.8275, "dv_ttm": 0.7726, "total_mv": 399986.8143, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [39.7, 39.5, 36.4, 34.2, 34.6, 40.3], "rev_series": [15.4, 20.8, 22.5, 23.3, 24.8, 25.0], "np_series": [2.5, 2.9, 1.6, 0.7, 0.9, 1.0], "roe_series": [5.8, 6.6, 3.5, 1.6, 1.9, 2.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 25.1, "np_ttm": 1.2, "ocf_ttm": 5.3, "fcf_ttm": -12.1, "fcf_yield": -30.2, "ocf_yield": 13.2, "gm_median": 36.4, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -3.2, "npm_median": 3.8, "roe_median": 2.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 72.8, "fix_assets": 187.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.83, "capex_dep": 2.54, "interest_debt": 173.7, "debt_ebitda": 13.2, "debt_ratio": 81.1, "debt_mv": 434.2, "payout": 31.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 3.5, "np_cagr3": -16.5, "rev_yoy": 0.7, "np_yoy": 102.1, "np_vol": 32.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 3.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["污水处理业务", 22.0], ["污水处理", 22.0], ["供水收入", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 4.9, "ret_prev2_year": -10.7, "ret_ytd": -8.0, "ret_pivot": 10.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.7, "ret_60": 4.4, "ret_120": -18.0, "ret_250": -10.6, "mdd_250": -26.8, "vol_250": 25.5, "pos_52w": 81.1}, "S": {"duration": 56, "pricing": 56, "hard": 100, "bondness": 47}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 32.6 倍、股息率 0.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 36.4%、固定资产占比 73%、有息负债/EBITDA 13.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 73%、毛利率 36.4% 看起来两条都占,但价格受管制(环境治理:电价/通行费/港口费由主管部门或市场化机制定),高毛利来自成本结构不是提价能力。通胀来了它不能提价,利润跟不上通胀,所以不算。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -30.2%(经营现金流/市值 13.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 36.4%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 73%,资本开支/折旧 2.54 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 32.6 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -11%,最大回撤 -27%,年化波动 26%,现价在 52 周高点的 81%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / 4% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「环境治理」107 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 27.6% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 38%。", "绿城水务:PE 比行业中位高 6.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 58.9个百分点。"]}}