{"F": {"ts_code": "601366.SH", "name": "利群股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "商贸零售", "sw2": "一般零售", "sw3": "多业态零售", "ind": "一般零售", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170412", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.8, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 0.8639, "dv_ttm": 2.6316, "total_mv": 364701.618, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.7, 29.8, 30.0, 32.7, 32.9, 30.7], "rev_series": [83.9, 80.8, 78.6, 77.0, 74.4, 67.7], "np_series": [1.4, 0.8, -1.7, 0.3, 0.3, -3.2], "roe_series": [3.0, 1.7, -4.0, 0.7, 0.6, -7.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 58.7, "np_ttm": -3.8, "ocf_ttm": 13.5, "fcf_ttm": 12.2, "fcf_yield": 33.4, "ocf_yield": 37.2, "gm_median": 30.7, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": 2.2, "npm_median": 0.2, "roe_median": 0.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 45.7, "fix_assets": 62.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.86, "capex_dep": 0.36, "interest_debt": 56.8, "debt_ebitda": 7.9, "debt_ratio": 69.2, "debt_mv": 155.6, "payout": 83.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -4.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -24.2, "np_yoy": -718.0, "np_vol": 507.7, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["零售连锁经营", 20.0], ["批发零售连锁经营商业业务", 20.0], ["物流供应链业务", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": -3.2, "ret_prev2_year": -7.0, "ret_ytd": -20.5, "ret_pivot": -22.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.2, "ret_60": 10.1, "ret_120": -12.6, "ret_250": -17.6, "mdd_250": -47.3, "vol_250": 35.3, "pos_52w": 64.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 58, "hard": 73, "bondness": 80}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -3.8 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 69%,有息负债 57 亿,经营现金流/市值 37.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 46%、毛利率 30.7% 两条都占,但所在行业(商贸零售)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 33.4%(经营现金流/市值 37.2%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 30.7%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.2 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 46%,资本开支/折旧 0.36 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -18%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 35%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / 10% / -13%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「一般零售」60 家中位:PE 60.7 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 34.2% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 51%。", "利群股份:PE ;股息率 比行业中位高 1.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 30.3个百分点。"]}}