{"F": {"ts_code": "601360.SH", "name": "三六零", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "横向通用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20120116", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.98, "pe_ttm": 82.6528, "pb": 2.225, "dv_ttm": 2.2272, "total_mv": 6285602.9942, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [62.5, 62.3, 58.8, 60.8, 66.1, 66.5], "rev_series": [116.1, 108.9, 95.2, 90.6, 79.5, 86.9], "np_series": [29.1, 9.0, -22.0, -4.9, -10.9, 2.6], "roe_series": [8.9, 2.5, -6.6, -1.5, -3.5, 0.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 90.4, "np_ttm": 7.6, "ocf_ttm": 1.8, "fcf_ttm": -2.5, "fcf_yield": -0.4, "ocf_yield": 0.3, "gm_median": 62.3, "gm_std": 3.0, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -3.7, "npm_median": -5.5, "roe_median": -1.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 3.4, "fix_assets": 12.6, "goodwill_ratio": 6.3, "pb_calc": 2.23, "capex_dep": 0.9, "interest_debt": 15.4, "debt_ebitda": 3.6, "debt_ratio": 22.8, "debt_mv": 2.4, "payout": 500.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -3.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 9.0, "np_yoy": 176.5, "np_vol": 165.7, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.2, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 141.8, "fwd_pe2": 117.1, "fwd_g1": -42.0, "fwd_g2": 21.0, "peg": 6.75, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["互联网及智能硬件业务", 32.0], ["互联网广告及服务", 18.0], ["互联网及智能硬件业务：互联网广告及服务", 18.0], ["互联网增值服务", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 10.1, "ret_prev2_year": 16.7, "ret_ytd": -18.9, "ret_pivot": 32.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.8, "ret_60": -0.2, "ret_120": -24.5, "ret_250": -20.9, "mdd_250": -40.1, "vol_250": 45.2, "pos_52w": 64.5}, "S": {"duration": 87, "pricing": 69, "hard": 5, "bondness": 79}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 7.6 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 83 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 23%,有息负债 15 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 62.3%),硬资产占比 3%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.4%(经营现金流/市值 0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 62.3%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 3%,资本开支/折旧 0.90 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 82.7 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -21%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 45%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / -0% / -24%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "三六零:PE 与行业中位持平;股息率 比行业中位高 1.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 13.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.4个百分点。"]}}