{"F": {"ts_code": "601333.SH", "name": "广深铁路", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "铁路公路", "sw3": "铁路运输", "ind": "铁路公路", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20061222", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.13, "pe_ttm": 14.7127, "pb": 0.7656, "dv_ttm": 2.8754, "total_mv": 2217147.081, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [-9.3, -5.2, -11.9, 6.3, 6.3, 5.6], "rev_series": [163.5, 202.1, 199.4, 261.9, 270.9, 286.9], "np_series": [-5.6, -9.7, -19.9, 10.6, 10.6, 14.3], "roe_series": [-1.9, -3.5, -7.6, 4.1, 4.0, 5.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 295.1, "np_ttm": 15.1, "ocf_ttm": 30.6, "fcf_ttm": 21.1, "fcf_yield": 9.5, "ocf_yield": 13.8, "gm_median": 5.6, "gm_std": 7.5, "gm_stab": -0.34, "gm_chg_2022": -2.6, "npm_median": 3.9, "roe_median": 4.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 56.7, "fix_assets": 211.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.8, "pb_calc": 0.77, "capex_dep": 0.51, "interest_debt": 14.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 22.3, "debt_mv": 6.3, "payout": 46.7, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 12.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 5.9, "np_yoy": 7.3, "np_vol": 90.7, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 66.0, "earn_yield": 6.8, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 15.6, "fwd_pe2": 14.9, "fwd_g1": -6.0, "fwd_g2": 5.0, "peg": 3.12, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["客运收入", 14.0], ["客运", 14.0], ["委托运输服务收入", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": -9.8, "ret_prev2_year": 38.6, "ret_ytd": 6.1, "ret_pivot": 4.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.7, "ret_60": 6.5, "ret_120": 2.0, "ret_250": 7.9, "mdd_250": -20.1, "vol_250": 23.7, "pos_52w": 91.0}, "S": {"duration": 31, "pricing": 8, "hard": 91, "bondness": 42}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 15.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 15 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 22%,有息负债 14 亿,经营现金流/市值 13.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 57%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 5.6%,稳定度 -34%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 9.5%(经营现金流/市值 13.8%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 5.6%,稳定度 -34%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 57%,资本开支/折旧 0.51 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 14.7 倍 粗算,约 66%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 8%,最大回撤 -20%,年化波动 24%,现价在 52 周高点的 91%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 6% / 2%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「铁路公路」33 家中位:PE 15.4 / 股息率 3.2% / 毛利率 32.2% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 48%。", "广深铁路:PE 比行业中位低 0.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 26.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 35.7个百分点。"]}}