{"F": {"ts_code": "601330.SH", "name": "绿色动力", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "环保", "sw2": "环境治理", "sw3": "固废治理", "ind": "环境治理", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20180611", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.92, "pe_ttm": 16.0725, "pb": 1.3758, "dv_ttm": 3.9954, "total_mv": 1132880.76, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [57.5, 34.2, 34.4, 38.5, 45.4, 46.7], "rev_series": [22.8, 50.6, 45.7, 39.6, 34.0, 35.3], "np_series": [5.0, 7.0, 7.4, 6.3, 5.9, 6.2], "roe_series": [11.5, 11.6, 10.7, 8.3, 7.4, 7.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 37.3, "np_ttm": 7.0, "ocf_ttm": 19.2, "fcf_ttm": 17.4, "fcf_yield": 15.3, "ocf_yield": 16.9, "gm_median": 38.5, "gm_std": 5.3, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -23.1, "npm_median": 17.1, "roe_median": 8.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.4, "fix_assets": 0.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.34, "capex_dep": 13.98, "interest_debt": 111.6, "debt_ebitda": 6.1, "debt_ratio": 60.3, "debt_mv": 98.5, "payout": 71.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -8.2, "np_cagr3": -6.1, "rev_yoy": 11.4, "np_yoy": 23.2, "np_vol": 18.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 69.0, "earn_yield": 6.2, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 14.6, "fwd_pe2": 13.8, "fwd_g1": 10.0, "fwd_g2": 6.0, "peg": 2.43, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["垃圾处理及发电业务", 27.0], ["发电供汽收入", 22.0], ["垃圾处理收入", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 7.8, "ret_prev2_year": 2.9, "ret_ytd": 21.7, "ret_pivot": 62.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 10.9, "ret_60": -0.1, "ret_120": -7.5, "ret_250": 15.3, "mdd_250": -38.4, "vol_250": 40.7, "pos_52w": 72.3}, "S": {"duration": 33, "pricing": 53, "hard": 1, "bondness": 84}, "label": "债券代理股", "tags": ["现金流红利", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["现金流像票息:近 5 年净利润增速波动 18个百分点,营收 3 年复合 -8.2%,利润在窄区间里波动。", "分红率 71%、股息率 4.0%,每年派多少钱几乎可以预测。", "杠杆:有息负债 112 亿,有息负债/EBITDA 6.1 倍,资产负债率 60%。利率升财务费用直接吃利润。", "定价方式是利差:市场看的是股息率 4.0% 比十年期国债高多少。PE 16.1 倍 倒过来就是 6.2% 的盈利收益率,这是债的定价。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 38.5%),硬资产占比 0%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。 另外它被市场当长债替代品交易:利率上行时跟长债一起跌,不跟硬资产一起涨,这个标签贴错会亏钱。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期跟长债走,承压;国内降息周期反而受益。拿它盯国内十年期国债收益率,不要盯黄金和美元。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 15.3%(经营现金流/市值 16.9%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 38.5%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -23.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 0%,资本开支/折旧 13.98 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 16.1 倍 粗算,约 69%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 15%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 11% / -0% / -8%。 债券代理股的波动应该低;波动偏高,市场没完全把它当债。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「环境治理」107 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 27.6% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 38%。", "绿色动力:PE 比行业中位低 10.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 10.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 13.5个百分点。"]}}