{"F": {"ts_code": "601328.SH", "name": "交通银行", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "银行", "sw2": "国有大型银行Ⅱ", "sw3": "国有大型银行Ⅲ", "ind": "国有大型银行Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20070515", "is_fin": true, "roles": {"fin": true, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.42, "pe_ttm": 6.7261, "pb": 0.5614, "dv_ttm": 4.376, "total_mv": 65565927.8935, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [null, null, null, null, null, null], "rev_series": [2462.0, 2693.9, 2729.8, 2575.9, 2598.3, 2650.7], "np_series": [782.7, 875.8, 921.5, 927.3, 935.9, 956.2], "roe_series": [9.4, 9.6, 9.3, 8.8, 8.4, 7.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2740.5, "np_ttm": 974.8, "ocf_ttm": 1739.0, "fcf_ttm": 1270.1, "fcf_yield": 19.4, "ocf_yield": 26.5, "gm_median": null, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 36.2, "roe_median": 8.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 1.5, "fix_assets": 2501.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.51, "capex_dep": 2.37, "interest_debt": 7134.6, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 92.0, "debt_mv": 108.8, "payout": 32.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -1.0, "np_cagr3": 1.2, "rev_yoy": 6.7, "np_yoy": 4.0, "np_vol": 4.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 26.0, "earn_yield": 14.9, "consensus_n": 11, "fwd_pe": 6.9, "fwd_pe2": 6.7, "fwd_g1": -3.0, "fwd_g2": 4.0, "peg": 1.73, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["利息净收入：利息收入", 24.0], ["产品", 16.0], ["利息净收入：利息收入：发放贷款和垫款", 15.0], ["利息净收入", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 0.2, "ret_prev2_year": 51.6, "ret_ytd": 4.8, "ret_pivot": 24.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.4, "ret_60": 9.1, "ret_120": 11.1, "ret_250": 0.9, "mdd_250": -15.3, "vol_250": 18.7, "pos_52w": 99.9}, "S": {"duration": 15, "pricing": null, "hard": null, "bondness": 61}, "label": "金融·利差生意", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["交通银行 是国有大型银行Ⅱ。银行赚的是利差,券商保险赚的是资产端与费率,毛利率与固定资产两个轴对它没有意义。", "ROE 近 5 年中位 8.8%,PB 0.56倍,股息率 4.4%,分红率 33%。", "利率上行对银行是净息差扩张(少数受益方向);对保险是资产端浮亏、对券商是交投与融资成本。"], "加息期怎么走": "按笔记:日债/美债收益率上行期,银行股是例外的受益方向;红利型大行按'现金流红利'拿,盯息差而不盯黄金。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "金融业现金流表不适用;用盈利收益率 14.9%(1/PE)与股息率 4.4% 看。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 6.7 倍 粗算,约 26%(1 − 5/PE)。<40%,估值靠当期。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 1%,最大回撤 -15%,年化波动 19%,现价在 52 周高点的 100%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / 9% / 11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「国有大型银行Ⅱ」6 家中位:PE 8.0 / 股息率 3.7% / 毛利率 — / 固定资产占比 0% / 分红率 32%。", "交通银行:PE 比行业中位低 1.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点;毛利率 ;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.0个百分点。"]}}