{"F": {"ts_code": "601319.SH", "name": "中国人保", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "非银金融", "sw2": "保险Ⅱ", "sw3": "保险Ⅲ", "ind": "保险Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20181116", "is_fin": true, "roles": {"fin": true, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.99, "pe_ttm": 6.2143, "pb": 1.0388, "dv_ttm": 2.7533, "total_mv": 35334968.4894, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [null, null, null, null, null, null], "rev_series": [5837.0, 5976.9, 6208.6, 5531.0, 6219.7, 6690.4], "np_series": [200.7, 216.4, 244.1, 227.7, 428.7, 466.5], "roe_series": [10.4, 10.3, 11.1, 9.8, 16.8, 16.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7001.4, "np_ttm": 568.6, "ocf_ttm": 1077.8, "fcf_ttm": 1029.6, "fcf_yield": 29.1, "ocf_yield": 30.5, "gm_median": null, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 5.7, "roe_median": 11.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 1.5, "fix_assets": 316.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.04, "capex_dep": 1.82, "interest_debt": 415.9, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 78.3, "debt_mv": 11.8, "payout": 21.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 2.5, "np_cagr3": 24.1, "rev_yoy": 9.6, "np_yoy": 38.5, "np_vol": 34.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 20.0, "earn_yield": 16.1, "consensus_n": 18, "fwd_pe": 6.7, "fwd_pe2": 6.2, "fwd_g1": -7.0, "fwd_g2": 7.0, "peg": 0.96, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 23.0], ["财产保险", 19.0], ["机动车辆险", 9.0], ["直接销售", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 22.0, "ret_prev2_year": 68.5, "ret_ytd": -9.3, "ret_pivot": 39.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 12.7, "ret_60": 21.3, "ret_120": -3.9, "ret_250": -7.3, "mdd_250": -34.7, "vol_250": 31.5, "pos_52w": 81.7}, "S": {"duration": 14, "pricing": null, "hard": null, "bondness": 44}, "label": "金融·利差生意", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["中国人保 是保险Ⅱ。银行赚的是利差,券商保险赚的是资产端与费率,毛利率与固定资产两个轴对它没有意义。", "ROE 近 5 年中位 11.1%,PB 1.04倍,股息率 2.8%,分红率 21%。", "利率上行对银行是净息差扩张(少数受益方向);对保险是资产端浮亏、对券商是交投与融资成本。"], "加息期怎么走": "按笔记:日债/美债收益率上行期,银行股是例外的受益方向;红利型大行按'现金流红利'拿,盯息差而不盯黄金。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "金融业现金流表不适用;用盈利收益率 16.1%(1/PE)与股息率 2.8% 看。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 6.2 倍 粗算,约 20%(1 − 5/PE)。<40%,估值靠当期。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -7%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 82%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 13% / 21% / -4%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「保险Ⅱ」5 家中位:PE 5.8 / 股息率 3.4% / 毛利率 — / 固定资产占比 1% / 分红率 23%。", "中国人保:PE 比行业中位高 0.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 ;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点。"]}}