{"F": {"ts_code": "601298.SH", "name": "青岛港", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "航运港口", "sw3": "港口", "ind": "航运港口", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20190121", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.21, "pe_ttm": 11.5145, "pb": 1.2666, "dv_ttm": 3.7503, "total_mv": 5978303.1, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.8, 32.0, 31.4, 35.6, 35.4, 36.7], "rev_series": [132.2, 161.0, 192.6, 181.7, 189.4, 188.1], "np_series": [38.4, 39.6, 45.3, 49.2, 52.3, 52.7], "roe_series": [12.1, 11.7, 12.5, 12.7, 12.7, 12.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 198.3, "np_ttm": 51.9, "ocf_ttm": 60.8, "fcf_ttm": 19.8, "fcf_yield": 3.3, "ocf_yield": 10.2, "gm_median": 35.4, "gm_std": 2.1, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -4.4, "npm_median": 30.3, "roe_median": 12.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 38.3, "fix_assets": 272.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.27, "capex_dep": 3.13, "interest_debt": 46.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 26.9, "debt_mv": 7.8, "payout": 38.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -0.8, "np_cagr3": 5.2, "rev_yoy": 10.8, "np_yoy": -2.8, "np_vol": 4.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 57.0, "earn_yield": 8.7, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 11.1, "fwd_pe2": 10.5, "fwd_g1": 4.0, "fwd_g2": 6.0, "peg": 1.85, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["装卸及相关业务", 28.0], ["物流及港口增值服务", 19.0], ["港口配套服务-销售油、电及其他", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": -4.9, "ret_prev2_year": 63.8, "ret_ytd": 13.1, "ret_pivot": 22.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.1, "ret_60": 1.9, "ret_120": 3.6, "ret_250": 12.0, "mdd_250": -18.8, "vol_250": 21.2, "pos_52w": 96.0}, "S": {"duration": 25, "pricing": 55, "hard": 61, "bondness": 58}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 11.5 倍、股息率 3.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 35.4%、固定资产占比 38%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 38%、毛利率 35.4% 看起来两条都占,但价格受管制(航运港口:电价/通行费/港口费由主管部门或市场化机制定),高毛利来自成本结构不是提价能力。通胀来了它不能提价,利润跟不上通胀,所以不算。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.3%(经营现金流/市值 10.2%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 35.4%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 3.13 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 11.5 倍 粗算,约 57%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 12%,最大回撤 -19%,年化波动 21%,现价在 52 周高点的 96%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 2% / 4%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航运港口」35 家中位:PE 17.1 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 27.0% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 41%。", "青岛港:PE 比行业中位低 5.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.8个百分点。"]}}