{"F": {"ts_code": "601279.SH", "name": "英利汽车", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "其他汽车零部件", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210415", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.39, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.3133, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 537581.454, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [15.5, 14.4, 10.2, 11.8, 10.9, 9.2], "rev_series": [50.2, 46.0, 50.9, 53.2, 46.9, 43.2], "np_series": [1.7, 1.5, 0.6, 1.0, 0.5, -0.8], "roe_series": [5.2, 4.3, 1.6, 2.6, 1.1, -2.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 40.1, "np_ttm": -1.3, "ocf_ttm": 5.3, "fcf_ttm": 2.2, "fcf_yield": 4.1, "ocf_yield": 9.9, "gm_median": 10.9, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": -5.4, "npm_median": 1.4, "roe_median": 1.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 37.9, "fix_assets": 27.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.5, "pb_calc": 1.31, "capex_dep": 0.73, "interest_debt": 9.9, "debt_ebitda": 2.8, "debt_ratio": 36.4, "debt_mv": 18.4, "payout": 30.4, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -5.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -15.0, "np_yoy": -125.0, "np_vol": 114.7, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["金属件", 36.0], ["非金属件", 11.0], ["模具", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 36.1, "ret_prev2_year": -34.1, "ret_ytd": -34.8, "ret_pivot": 2.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.3, "ret_60": 0.6, "ret_120": -21.2, "ret_250": -20.2, "mdd_250": -49.8, "vol_250": 41.2, "pos_52w": 58.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 39, "hard": 61, "bondness": 39}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 38%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 10.9%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.4 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 2.8 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 38%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 10.9%,稳定度 84%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.1%(经营现金流/市值 9.9%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 10.9%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 0.73 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -20%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / 1% / -21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "英利汽车:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 12.4个百分点。"]}}