{"F": {"ts_code": "601238.SH", "name": "广汽集团", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "乘用车", "sw3": "综合乘用车", "ind": "乘用车", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20120329", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.17, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 0.5251, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 5271883.0703, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [6.5, 7.9, 7.0, 6.9, 5.8, -1.3], "rev_series": [627.2, 751.1, 1093.3, 1287.6, 1068.0, 956.6], "np_series": [59.7, 73.3, 80.7, 44.3, 8.2, -87.8], "roe_series": [7.3, 8.4, 7.9, 3.9, 0.7, -8.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 996.2, "np_ttm": -107.1, "ocf_ttm": -113.6, "fcf_ttm": -200.8, "fcf_yield": -38.1, "ocf_yield": -21.6, "gm_median": 6.9, "gm_std": 3.4, "gm_stab": 0.51, "gm_chg_2022": 0.5, "npm_median": 2.9, "roe_median": 3.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.4, "fix_assets": 265.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.53, "capex_dep": 3.26, "interest_debt": 575.6, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 55.0, "debt_mv": 109.2, "payout": 49.1, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -4.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 9.4, "np_yoy": -76.0, "np_vol": 458.8, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 43.0], ["乘用车", 29.0], ["汽车相关贸易", 11.0], ["汽车相关业务", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": -12.4, "ret_prev2_year": 8.4, "ret_ytd": -36.6, "ret_pivot": -29.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.5, "ret_60": -10.1, "ret_120": -34.3, "ret_250": -36.4, "mdd_250": -47.1, "vol_250": 29.5, "pos_52w": 55.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 29, "hard": 18, "bondness": 40}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -107.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 55%,有息负债 576 亿,经营现金流/市值 -21.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 11%,毛利率近 5 年中位 6.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -38.1%(经营现金流/市值 -21.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 6.9%,稳定度 51%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 3.26 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -36%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 30%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -10% / -34%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「乘用车」8 家中位:PE 27.1 / 股息率 2.3% / 毛利率 10.6% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 38%。", "广汽集团:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.4个百分点。"]}}