{"F": {"ts_code": "601236.SH", "name": "红塔证券", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "非银金融", "sw2": "证券Ⅱ", "sw3": "证券Ⅲ", "ind": "证券Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20190705", "is_fin": true, "roles": {"fin": true, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.11, "pe_ttm": 31.6867, "pb": 1.3696, "dv_ttm": 2.9568, "total_mv": 3336889.1607, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [null, null, null, null, null, null], "rev_series": [55.9, 67.3, 8.4, 12.0, 20.2, 24.3], "np_series": [14.1, 15.8, 0.4, 3.1, 7.6, 12.1], "roe_series": [10.2, 8.4, 0.2, 1.4, 3.2, 4.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 22.7, "np_ttm": 10.5, "ocf_ttm": -7.1, "fcf_ttm": -8.0, "fcf_yield": -2.4, "ocf_yield": -2.1, "gm_median": null, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 23.8, "roe_median": 3.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.1, "fix_assets": 0.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.37, "capex_dep": 2.95, "interest_debt": 80.8, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 62.1, "debt_mv": 24.2, "payout": 85.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 42.8, "np_cagr3": 215.8, "rev_yoy": -14.0, "np_yoy": -23.9, "np_vol": 283.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 84.0, "earn_yield": 3.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["投资收益", 33.0], ["利息净收入：利息收入", 13.0], ["利息净收入：利息收入：其他债权投资利息收入", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": -1.8, "ret_prev2_year": 14.0, "ret_ytd": -11.5, "ret_pivot": 10.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.4, "ret_60": 10.1, "ret_120": -8.5, "ret_250": -26.2, "mdd_250": -32.0, "vol_250": 21.4, "pos_52w": 74.8}, "S": {"duration": 55, "pricing": null, "hard": null, "bondness": 51}, "label": "金融·利差生意", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["红塔证券 是证券Ⅱ。银行赚的是利差,券商保险赚的是资产端与费率,毛利率与固定资产两个轴对它没有意义。", "ROE 近 5 年中位 3.2%,PB 1.37倍,股息率 3.0%,分红率 86%。", "利率上行对银行是净息差扩张(少数受益方向);对保险是资产端浮亏、对券商是交投与融资成本。"], "加息期怎么走": "按笔记:日债/美债收益率上行期,银行股是例外的受益方向;红利型大行按'现金流红利'拿,盯息差而不盯黄金。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "金融业现金流表不适用;用盈利收益率 3.2%(1/PE)与股息率 3.0% 看。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 31.7 倍 粗算,约 84%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -26%,最大回撤 -32%,年化波动 21%,现价在 52 周高点的 75%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 10% / -8%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「证券Ⅱ」50 家中位:PE 15.7 / 股息率 1.9% / 毛利率 10.2% / 固定资产占比 0% / 分红率 33%。", "红塔证券:PE 比行业中位高 16.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.1个百分点;毛利率 ;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点。"]}}