{"F": {"ts_code": "601233.SH", "name": "桐昆股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "石油石化", "sw2": "炼化及贸易", "sw3": "其他石化", "ind": "炼化及贸易", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110518", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 26.0, "pe_ttm": 11.9914, "pb": 1.4539, "dv_ttm": 0.4615, "total_mv": 6185403.9, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [6.3, 11.0, 3.2, 5.1, 4.6, 5.5], "rev_series": [458.3, 591.3, 619.9, 826.4, 1013.1, 938.9], "np_series": [28.5, 73.3, 1.3, 8.0, 12.0, 20.3], "roe_series": [12.7, 23.8, 0.4, 2.3, 3.3, 5.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1024.4, "np_ttm": 51.6, "ocf_ttm": 60.1, "fcf_ttm": -6.8, "fcf_yield": -1.1, "ocf_yield": 9.7, "gm_median": 5.1, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.48, "gm_chg_2022": -3.1, "npm_median": 1.2, "roe_median": 3.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 43.8, "fix_assets": 537.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.45, "capex_dep": 1.25, "interest_debt": 658.2, "debt_ebitda": 7.0, "debt_ratio": 64.9, "debt_mv": 106.4, "payout": 14.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 14.8, "np_cagr3": 149.9, "rev_yoy": 19.4, "np_yoy": 285.0, "np_vol": 214.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 58.0, "earn_yield": 8.3, "consensus_n": 22, "fwd_pe": 9.4, "fwd_pe2": 8.4, "fwd_g1": 27.0, "fwd_g2": 12.0, "peg": 0.78, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["涤纶预取向丝", 28.0], ["涤纶牵伸丝", 7.0], ["精对苯二甲酸", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 47.6, "ret_prev2_year": -22.1, "ret_ytd": 52.1, "ret_pivot": 159.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 10.4, "ret_60": 29.0, "ret_120": 28.5, "ret_250": 83.6, "mdd_250": -34.5, "vol_250": 53.4, "pos_52w": 94.0}, "S": {"duration": 26, "pricing": 25, "hard": 70, "bondness": 28}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 44%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 5.1%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.1 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 7.0 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 44%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 5.1%,稳定度 48%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.1%(经营现金流/市值 9.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 5.1%,稳定度 48%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 44%,资本开支/折旧 1.25 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 12.0 倍 粗算,约 58%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 84%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 94%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / 29% / 28%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「炼化及贸易」30 家中位:PE 24.2 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 10.6% / 固定资产占比 43% / 分红率 49%。", "桐昆股份:PE 比行业中位低 12.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点。"]}}