{"F": {"ts_code": "601228.SH", "name": "广州港", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "航运港口", "sw3": "港口", "ind": "航运港口", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170329", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.12, "pe_ttm": 28.5042, "pb": 1.0897, "dv_ttm": 1.0577, "total_mv": 2353893.7968, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.7, 21.8, 21.8, 23.2, 21.8, 23.0], "rev_series": [112.5, 120.2, 127.4, 131.9, 140.7, 139.1], "np_series": [8.7, 11.4, 10.8, 10.8, 9.6, 8.2], "roe_series": [6.5, 8.0, 6.3, 5.5, 4.7, 3.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 135.6, "np_ttm": 8.3, "ocf_ttm": 22.7, "fcf_ttm": -9.2, "fcf_yield": -3.9, "ocf_yield": 9.7, "gm_median": 21.8, "gm_std": 0.6, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": 0.1, "npm_median": 9.4, "roe_median": 5.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 62.0, "fix_assets": 339.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 1.09, "capex_dep": 2.12, "interest_debt": 205.7, "debt_ebitda": 6.0, "debt_ratio": 53.3, "debt_mv": 87.4, "payout": 30.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 3.0, "np_cagr3": -8.7, "rev_yoy": -5.0, "np_yoy": 0.8, "np_vol": 16.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 82.0, "earn_yield": 3.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 43.0], ["装卸及相关业务", 24.0], ["物流及港口辅助业务(含代理\\运输\\拖轮\\理货)", 12.0], ["物流及港口辅助业务", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": -3.3, "ret_prev2_year": 10.0, "ret_ytd": -2.7, "ret_pivot": 4.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.0, "ret_60": 5.9, "ret_120": -12.3, "ret_250": -8.4, "mdd_250": -25.0, "vol_250": 21.7, "pos_52w": 83.9}, "S": {"duration": 51, "pricing": 52, "hard": 99, "bondness": 49}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 28.5 倍、股息率 1.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 21.8%、固定资产占比 62%、有息负债/EBITDA 6.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 62%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 21.8%,稳定度 97%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.9%(经营现金流/市值 9.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.8%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 62%,资本开支/折旧 2.12 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 28.5 倍 粗算,约 82%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -8%,最大回撤 -25%,年化波动 22%,现价在 52 周高点的 84%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / 6% / -12%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航运港口」35 家中位:PE 17.1 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 27.0% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 41%。", "广州港:PE 比行业中位高 11.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 14.9个百分点。"]}}