{"F": {"ts_code": "601226.SH", "name": "华电科工", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑装饰", "sw2": "专业工程", "sw3": "其他专业工程", "ind": "专业工程", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20141211", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.48, "pe_ttm": 42.0702, "pb": 1.7032, "dv_ttm": 0.7407, "total_mv": 753120.9576, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [7.9, 9.0, 12.9, 10.7, 11.3, 10.5], "rev_series": [89.1, 103.3, 82.1, 71.7, 75.4, 104.3], "np_series": [1.0, 3.0, 3.1, 1.0, 1.2, 1.6], "roe_series": [2.6, 7.9, 7.6, 2.3, 2.7, 3.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 111.4, "np_ttm": 1.8, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_yield": 0.2, "ocf_yield": 1.4, "gm_median": 10.7, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": 5.0, "npm_median": 1.6, "roe_median": 3.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.3, "fix_assets": 9.4, "goodwill_ratio": 1.1, "pb_calc": 1.7, "capex_dep": 0.87, "interest_debt": 2.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 59.5, "debt_mv": 2.8, "payout": 35.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 8.3, "np_cagr3": -20.3, "rev_yoy": 18.5, "np_yoy": 41.2, "np_vol": 93.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 88.0, "earn_yield": 2.4, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 32.7, "fwd_pe2": 24.9, "fwd_g1": 29.0, "fwd_g2": 31.0, "peg": 1.05, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 44.0], ["高端钢结构工程", 14.0], ["热能工程", 10.0], ["海洋工程业务", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 16.7, "ret_prev2_year": 3.2, "ret_ytd": -16.8, "ret_pivot": 42.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.8, "ret_60": -4.7, "ret_120": -40.5, "ret_250": -6.9, "mdd_250": -55.9, "vol_250": 49.4, "pos_52w": 51.1}, "S": {"duration": 65, "pricing": 47, "hard": 13, "bondness": 30}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 41%,PE TTM 42.1 倍 但前瞻 PE 32.7 倍,PEG 1.05。", "自由现金流 0.1 亿(正),次年预期增速 31%(3 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 8%,毛利率近 5 年中位 10.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.2%(经营现金流/市值 1.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 10.7%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 5.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 0.87 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 42.1 倍 粗算,约 88%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -7%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 51%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -5% / -40%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专业工程」39 家中位:PE 40.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 13.6% / 固定资产占比 10% / 分红率 38%。", "华电科工:PE 比行业中位高 1.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.0个百分点。"]}}