{"F": {"ts_code": "601225.SH", "name": "陕西煤业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "煤炭", "sw2": "煤炭开采", "sw3": "动力煤", "ind": "煤炭开采", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20140128", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 26.24, "pe_ttm": 12.4712, "pb": 2.5153, "dv_ttm": 3.6128, "total_mv": 25439680.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.5, 35.8, 45.0, 37.9, 32.7, 29.1], "rev_series": [948.6, 1522.7, 1668.5, 1708.7, 1841.4, 1581.8], "np_series": [148.8, 211.4, 351.2, 212.4, 223.6, 167.6], "roe_series": [23.2, 27.2, 37.4, 22.1, 24.9, 17.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1590.9, "np_ttm": 204.0, "ocf_ttm": 399.9, "fcf_ttm": 222.3, "fcf_yield": 8.7, "ocf_yield": 15.7, "gm_median": 35.8, "gm_std": 5.4, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": 17.5, "npm_median": 21.0, "roe_median": 24.9, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 48.3, "fix_assets": 1202.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.52, "capex_dep": 1.51, "interest_debt": 271.7, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 40.3, "debt_mv": 10.7, "payout": 58.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -1.8, "np_cagr3": -21.8, "rev_yoy": 1.2, "np_yoy": 47.6, "np_vol": 39.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 60.0, "earn_yield": 8.0, "consensus_n": 18, "fwd_pe": 12.0, "fwd_pe2": 11.3, "fwd_g1": 4.0, "fwd_g2": 6.0, "peg": 2.0, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 31.0], ["自产煤", 19.0], ["自产煤：原煤", 14.0], ["原选煤", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": -3.1, "ret_prev2_year": 22.0, "ret_ytd": 28.6, "ret_pivot": 21.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.8, "ret_60": 0.8, "ret_120": 3.6, "ret_250": 24.1, "mdd_250": -24.3, "vol_250": 34.3, "pos_52w": 95.0}, "S": {"duration": 27, "pricing": 70, "hard": 77, "bondness": 64}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["现金流红利", "商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 1202 亿,占总资产 48%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:动力煤 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 8.7%,股息率 3.6%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 60%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 48%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 8.7%(经营现金流/市值 15.7%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 35.8%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 17.5 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 48%,资本开支/折旧 1.51 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 12.5 倍 粗算,约 60%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 24%,最大回撤 -24%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 95%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 1% / 4%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「煤炭开采」26 家中位:PE 25.7 / 股息率 1.9% / 毛利率 34.5% / 固定资产占比 50% / 分红率 51%。", "陕西煤业:PE 比行业中位低 13.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.2个百分点。"]}}