{"F": {"ts_code": "601218.SH", "name": "吉鑫科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "风电设备", "sw3": "风电零部件", "ind": "风电设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110506", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.5, "pe_ttm": 25.2383, "pb": 1.4288, "dv_ttm": 1.0, "total_mv": 436065.075, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.6, 21.9, 17.8, 23.9, 16.0, 19.3], "rev_series": [20.5, 18.6, 17.6, 13.9, 12.2, 14.1], "np_series": [2.3, 2.1, 1.6, 1.3, 0.3, 1.4], "roe_series": [9.0, 7.7, 5.6, 4.6, 1.1, 4.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 16.9, "np_ttm": 1.7, "ocf_ttm": 4.0, "fcf_ttm": 3.7, "fcf_yield": 8.4, "ocf_yield": 9.1, "gm_median": 19.3, "gm_std": 2.8, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": -7.8, "npm_median": 9.4, "roe_median": 4.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 29.0, "fix_assets": 12.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 1.43, "capex_dep": 0.22, "interest_debt": 3.2, "debt_ebitda": 1.0, "debt_ratio": 27.4, "debt_mv": 7.2, "payout": 32.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -7.2, "np_cagr3": -4.5, "rev_yoy": 39.3, "np_yoy": 46.1, "np_vol": 152.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 80.0, "earn_yield": 4.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["风机设备", 31.0], ["轮毂、底座等主产品", 31.0], ["风力发电", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 56.3, "ret_prev2_year": -16.4, "ret_ytd": -10.4, "ret_pivot": 71.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.2, "ret_60": -5.3, "ret_120": -34.8, "ret_250": 2.6, "mdd_250": -50.8, "vol_250": 52.6, "pos_52w": 55.8}, "S": {"duration": 47, "pricing": 43, "hard": 46, "bondness": 40}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 25.2 倍、股息率 1.0%、毛利率近 5 年中位 19.3%、固定资产占比 29%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 29%,毛利率近 5 年中位 19.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 8.4%(经营现金流/市值 9.1%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.3%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 29%,资本开支/折旧 0.22 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 25.2 倍 粗算,约 80%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 3%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -5% / -35%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「风电设备」31 家中位:PE 32.3 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 17.3% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "吉鑫科技:PE 比行业中位低 7.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点。"]}}