{"F": {"ts_code": "601216.SH", "name": "君正集团", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学原料", "sw3": "氯碱", "ind": "化学原料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110222", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.82, "pe_ttm": 13.2723, "pb": 1.4807, "dv_ttm": 7.8838, "total_mv": 4067124.3868, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.4, 35.9, 25.2, 23.6, 19.0, 20.9], "rev_series": [148.0, 192.9, 214.6, 191.2, 252.1, 252.4], "np_series": [48.2, 45.4, 41.6, 27.2, 28.0, 33.2], "roe_series": [24.3, 20.9, 17.2, 10.3, 10.4, 11.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 254.7, "np_ttm": 30.6, "ocf_ttm": 49.3, "fcf_ttm": 36.2, "fcf_yield": 8.9, "ocf_yield": 12.1, "gm_median": 23.6, "gm_std": 5.9, "gm_stab": 0.75, "gm_chg_2022": -6.3, "npm_median": 14.7, "roe_median": 11.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 47.4, "fix_assets": 207.7, "goodwill_ratio": 3.4, "pb_calc": 1.48, "capex_dep": 0.65, "interest_debt": 59.6, "debt_ebitda": 1.0, "debt_ratio": 35.5, "debt_mv": 14.6, "payout": 96.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 5.6, "np_cagr3": -7.2, "rev_yoy": 1.8, "np_yoy": -13.2, "np_vol": 17.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 62.0, "earn_yield": 7.5, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 11.0, "fwd_pe2": 9.8, "fwd_g1": 20.0, "fwd_g2": 13.0, "peg": 0.85, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["有机化学产品制造", 23.0], ["化学原料和化学制品", 23.0], ["综合物流服务", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": -6.1, "ret_prev2_year": 63.7, "ret_ytd": 8.6, "ret_pivot": 58.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.9, "ret_60": 3.4, "ret_120": -19.9, "ret_250": -8.0, "mdd_250": -35.2, "vol_250": 36.2, "pos_52w": 76.5}, "S": {"duration": 28, "pricing": 42, "hard": 76, "bondness": 81}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 97%、股息率 7.9%、营收 3 年复合 5.6%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.0 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 47%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 23.6%,稳定度 75%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 8.9%(经营现金流/市值 12.1%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.6%,稳定度 75%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 47%,资本开支/折旧 0.65 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 13.3 倍 粗算,约 62%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -8%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 36%,现价在 52 周高点的 76%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 3% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学原料」59 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 16.8% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 40%。", "君正集团:PE 比行业中位低 22.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 7.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.8个百分点;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}