{"F": {"ts_code": "601212.SH", "name": "白银有色", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "工业金属", "sw3": "铜", "ind": "工业金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170215", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.3, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.5049, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 5405485.385, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [4.0, 4.3, 5.0, 4.2, 5.6, 6.5], "rev_series": [614.2, 722.8, 878.4, 869.7, 867.9, 854.6], "np_series": [0.7, 0.8, 0.3, 1.1, 0.8, -7.6], "roe_series": [0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.7, 0.5, -5.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 866.8, "np_ttm": -4.6, "ocf_ttm": -71.1, "fcf_ttm": -86.9, "fcf_yield": -16.1, "ocf_yield": -13.2, "gm_median": 5.0, "gm_std": 0.9, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": 1.0, "npm_median": 0.6, "roe_median": 0.2, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 21.2, "fix_assets": 127.4, "goodwill_ratio": 1.3, "pb_calc": 3.5, "capex_dep": 1.3, "interest_debt": 255.6, "debt_ebitda": 4.4, "debt_ratio": 69.5, "debt_mv": 47.3, "payout": 30.3, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -0.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 2.7, "np_yoy": 136.9, "np_vol": 445.8, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 45.0], ["阴极铜", 12.0], ["黄金", 10.0], ["铜杆", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 110.7, "ret_prev2_year": 3.5, "ret_ytd": 24.8, "ret_pivot": 168.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 29.7, "ret_60": 31.3, "ret_120": -19.4, "ret_250": 101.7, "mdd_250": -70.6, "vol_250": 74.3, "pos_52w": 48.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 70, "hard": 34, "bondness": 44}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -4.6 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 70%,有息负债 256 亿,经营现金流/市值 -13.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 5.0%),硬资产占比 21%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -16.1%(经营现金流/市值 -13.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 5.0%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 21%,资本开支/折旧 1.30 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 102%,最大回撤 -71%,年化波动 74%,现价在 52 周高点的 48%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 30% / 31% / -19%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工业金属」60 家中位:PE 20.5 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 10.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "白银有色:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.3个百分点。"]}}