{"F": {"ts_code": "601211.SH", "name": "国泰海通", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "非银金融", "sw2": "证券Ⅱ", "sw3": "证券Ⅲ", "ind": "证券Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150626", "is_fin": true, "roles": {"fin": true, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.87, "pe_ttm": 9.7172, "pb": 0.949, "dv_ttm": 2.7846, "total_mv": 31417350.646, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [null, null, null, null, null, null], "rev_series": [352.0, 428.2, 354.7, 361.4, 434.0, 631.1], "np_series": [111.2, 150.1, 115.1, 93.7, 130.2, 278.1], "roe_series": [8.1, 10.6, 7.6, 5.8, 7.7, 11.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 864.0, "np_ttm": 323.3, "ocf_ttm": 1357.4, "fcf_ttm": 1338.2, "fcf_yield": 42.6, "ocf_yield": 43.2, "gm_median": null, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 32.8, "roe_median": 7.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.8, "fix_assets": 192.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 0.84, "capex_dep": 1.54, "interest_debt": 4345.7, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 84.5, "debt_mv": 138.3, "payout": 30.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 21.2, "np_cagr3": 34.2, "rev_yoy": 97.6, "np_yoy": 28.7, "np_vol": 49.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 49.0, "earn_yield": 10.3, "consensus_n": 23, "fwd_pe": 9.5, "fwd_pe2": 8.9, "fwd_g1": 2.0, "fwd_g2": 6.0, "peg": 1.58, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["公允价值变动收益/(损失)", 17.0], ["手续费及佣金净收入：手续费及佣金收入", 15.0], ["机构投资者服务", 14.0], ["利息净收入：利息收入", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 13.0, "ret_prev2_year": 31.9, "ret_ytd": -11.5, "ret_pivot": 29.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.2, "ret_60": 5.9, "ret_120": 1.6, "ret_250": -15.5, "mdd_250": -33.3, "vol_250": 25.4, "pos_52w": 81.4}, "S": {"duration": 22, "pricing": null, "hard": null, "bondness": 31}, "label": "金融·利差生意", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["国泰海通 是证券Ⅱ。银行赚的是利差,券商保险赚的是资产端与费率,毛利率与固定资产两个轴对它没有意义。", "ROE 近 5 年中位 7.7%,PB 0.95倍,股息率 2.8%,分红率 31%。", "利率上行对银行是净息差扩张(少数受益方向);对保险是资产端浮亏、对券商是交投与融资成本。"], "加息期怎么走": "按笔记:日债/美债收益率上行期,银行股是例外的受益方向;红利型大行按'现金流红利'拿,盯息差而不盯黄金。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "金融业现金流表不适用;用盈利收益率 10.3%(1/PE)与股息率 2.8% 看。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 9.7 倍 粗算,约 49%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,最大回撤 -33%,年化波动 25%,现价在 52 周高点的 81%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / 6% / 2%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「证券Ⅱ」50 家中位:PE 15.7 / 股息率 1.9% / 毛利率 10.2% / 固定资产占比 0% / 分红率 33%。", "国泰海通:PE 比行业中位低 6.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.9个百分点;毛利率 ;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点。"]}}