{"F": {"ts_code": "601208.SH", "name": "东材科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "塑料", "sw3": "膜材料", "ind": "塑料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110520", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 46.13, "pe_ttm": 114.5432, "pb": 7.4938, "dv_ttm": 0.3252, "total_mv": 4659973.7177, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.7, 23.7, 20.7, 19.0, 13.9, 15.7], "rev_series": [18.8, 32.3, 36.4, 37.4, 44.7, 51.8], "np_series": [1.8, 3.4, 4.2, 3.3, 1.8, 2.9], "roe_series": [7.2, 11.2, 10.6, 7.5, 4.0, 5.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 58.4, "np_ttm": 4.1, "ocf_ttm": 4.5, "fcf_ttm": 1.9, "fcf_yield": 0.4, "ocf_yield": 1.0, "gm_median": 19.0, "gm_std": 3.5, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": -5.0, "npm_median": 8.2, "roe_median": 7.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 54.4, "fix_assets": 62.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 7.49, "capex_dep": 0.62, "interest_debt": 32.1, "debt_ebitda": 3.6, "debt_ratio": 45.7, "debt_mv": 6.9, "payout": 49.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 12.5, "np_cagr3": -11.7, "rev_yoy": 27.3, "np_yoy": 63.8, "np_vol": 50.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 12, "fwd_pe": 63.3, "fwd_pe2": 37.7, "fwd_g1": 81.0, "fwd_g2": 68.0, "peg": 0.93, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["电子材料", 22.0], ["电子", 22.0], ["光学膜材料", 14.0], ["光学膜", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": 269.5, "ret_prev2_year": -39.1, "ret_ytd": 71.2, "ret_pivot": 597.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.4, "ret_60": -25.2, "ret_120": 39.2, "ret_250": 146.0, "mdd_250": -59.3, "vol_250": 78.5, "pos_52w": 57.8}, "S": {"duration": 94, "pricing": 42, "hard": 87, "bondness": 38}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 54%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 19.0%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.0 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 3.6 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 54%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 19.0%,稳定度 82%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.4%(经营现金流/市值 1.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.0%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 54%,资本开支/折旧 0.62 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 114.5 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 146%,最大回撤 -59%,年化波动 78%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / -25% / 39%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「塑料」77 家中位:PE 41.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 40%。", "东材科技:PE 比行业中位高 73.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 22.5个百分点。"]}}