{"F": {"ts_code": "601200.SH", "name": "上海环境", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "环保", "sw2": "环境治理", "sw3": "固废治理", "ind": "环境治理", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170331", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.96, "pe_ttm": 16.334, "pb": 0.7945, "dv_ttm": 1.9397, "total_mv": 936976.2888, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.4, 23.7, 26.4, 26.6, 26.0, 26.7], "rev_series": [45.1, 71.0, 62.9, 63.8, 62.6, 62.6], "np_series": [6.3, 6.9, 5.2, 5.5, 5.8, 6.0], "roe_series": [7.8, 7.2, 5.2, 5.2, 5.3, 5.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 59.6, "np_ttm": 5.7, "ocf_ttm": 19.1, "fcf_ttm": 12.9, "fcf_yield": 13.7, "ocf_yield": 20.4, "gm_median": 26.4, "gm_std": 1.1, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -2.0, "npm_median": 10.6, "roe_median": 5.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 4.6, "fix_assets": 14.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.79, "capex_dep": 6.24, "interest_debt": 100.2, "debt_ebitda": 5.7, "debt_ratio": 55.4, "debt_mv": 106.9, "payout": 23.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -0.1, "np_cagr3": 5.1, "rev_yoy": -10.1, "np_yoy": -8.8, "np_vol": 13.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 69.0, "earn_yield": 6.1, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 15.0, "fwd_pe2": 14.5, "fwd_g1": 9.0, "fwd_g2": 3.0, "peg": 5.0, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["环保项目建造及运营", 41.0], ["建设及运营咨询服务", 6.0], ["设计、工程承包及生态修复", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": -0.3, "ret_prev2_year": 10.6, "ret_ytd": -12.1, "ret_pivot": -2.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.3, "ret_60": -1.6, "ret_120": -21.2, "ret_250": -15.7, "mdd_250": -27.9, "vol_250": 19.2, "pos_52w": 77.6}, "S": {"duration": 34, "pricing": 53, "hard": 7, "bondness": 55}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 16.3 倍、股息率 1.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 26.4%、固定资产占比 5%、有息负债/EBITDA 5.7 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 5%,毛利率近 5 年中位 26.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 13.7%(经营现金流/市值 20.4%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.4%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 5%,资本开支/折旧 6.24 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 16.3 倍 粗算,约 69%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,最大回撤 -28%,年化波动 19%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / -2% / -21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「环境治理」107 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 27.6% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 38%。", "上海环境:PE 比行业中位低 9.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 9.3个百分点。"]}}