{"F": {"ts_code": "601168.SH", "name": "西部矿业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "工业金属", "sw3": "铜", "ind": "工业金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20070712", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 38.79, "pe_ttm": 15.5548, "pb": 4.123, "dv_ttm": 0.2578, "total_mv": 9243657.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.0, 21.0, 19.4, 18.0, 19.9, 19.6], "rev_series": [285.5, 384.0, 397.6, 427.5, 500.3, 616.9], "np_series": [9.1, 29.3, 34.5, 27.9, 29.3, 36.4], "roe_series": [8.7, 24.2, 23.4, 17.8, 18.1, 20.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 695.1, "np_ttm": 59.4, "ocf_ttm": 135.5, "fcf_ttm": 19.6, "fcf_yield": 2.1, "ocf_yield": 14.7, "gm_median": 19.6, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": 5.4, "npm_median": 10.6, "roe_median": 20.5, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 41.2, "fix_assets": 274.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.12, "capex_dep": 4.84, "interest_debt": 265.8, "debt_ebitda": 1.9, "debt_ratio": 53.7, "debt_mv": 28.8, "payout": 42.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 15.8, "np_cagr3": 1.9, "rev_yoy": 24.7, "np_yoy": 123.0, "np_vol": 87.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 68.0, "earn_yield": 6.4, "consensus_n": 19, "fwd_pe": 13.4, "fwd_pe2": 11.7, "fwd_g1": 16.0, "fwd_g2": 15.0, "peg": 0.89, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["销售商品", 50.0], ["有色金属采选、冶炼", 44.0], ["贸易类产品", 5.0], ["合计特别调整", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 84.0, "ret_prev2_year": 18.2, "ret_ytd": 40.8, "ret_pivot": 167.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.9, "ret_60": 31.3, "ret_120": 29.5, "ret_250": 108.9, "mdd_250": -37.6, "vol_250": 54.7, "pos_52w": 90.1}, "S": {"duration": 32, "pricing": 70, "hard": 66, "bondness": 26}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["成长兑现", "商品定价", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 274 亿,占总资产 41%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:铜 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 2.1%,股息率 0.3%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 68%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 41%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.1%(经营现金流/市值 14.7%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.6%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 5.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 41%,资本开支/折旧 4.84 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 15.6 倍 粗算,约 68%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 109%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 55%,现价在 52 周高点的 90%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / 31% / 30%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年已经跑过,加仓看信号。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工业金属」60 家中位:PE 20.5 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 10.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "西部矿业:PE 比行业中位低 4.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 13.7个百分点。"]}}