{"F": {"ts_code": "601158.SH", "name": "重庆水务", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "环保", "sw2": "环境治理", "sw3": "水务及水治理", "ind": "环境治理", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100329", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.12, "pe_ttm": 23.8094, "pb": 1.1533, "dv_ttm": 3.0825, "total_mv": 1977612.4012, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [43.6, 41.4, 35.7, 25.1, 27.9, 28.7], "rev_series": [63.5, 72.5, 77.8, 72.5, 70.0, 75.2], "np_series": [17.7, 20.8, 19.1, 10.9, 7.9, 8.1], "roe_series": [11.6, 13.0, 11.4, 6.4, 4.6, 4.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 76.4, "np_ttm": 8.5, "ocf_ttm": 17.6, "fcf_ttm": 2.8, "fcf_yield": 1.4, "ocf_yield": 8.9, "gm_median": 28.7, "gm_std": 5.9, "gm_stab": 0.79, "gm_chg_2022": -7.9, "npm_median": 15.1, "roe_median": 6.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 56.8, "fix_assets": 197.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 1.15, "capex_dep": 0.76, "interest_debt": 114.3, "debt_ebitda": 3.4, "debt_ratio": 50.3, "debt_mv": 57.8, "payout": 74.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -1.1, "np_cagr3": -24.9, "rev_yoy": 1.5, "np_yoy": 4.6, "np_vol": 21.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 79.0, "earn_yield": 4.2, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 22.9, "fwd_pe2": 21.7, "fwd_g1": 4.0, "fwd_g2": 6.0, "peg": 3.82, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["污水处理板块", 27.0], ["集团本部", 24.0], ["供水板块", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": -5.9, "ret_prev2_year": -11.5, "ret_ytd": -5.7, "ret_pivot": 2.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.0, "ret_60": 1.5, "ret_120": -9.6, "ret_250": -11.1, "mdd_250": -19.1, "vol_250": 13.6, "pos_52w": 86.4}, "S": {"duration": 45, "pricing": 46, "hard": 91, "bondness": 75}, "label": "债券代理股", "tags": ["现金流红利"], "text": {"像什么": ["现金流像票息:近 5 年净利润增速波动 22个百分点,营收 3 年复合 -1.1%,利润在窄区间里波动。", "分红率 75%、股息率 3.1%,每年派多少钱几乎可以预测。", "杠杆:有息负债 114 亿,有息负债/EBITDA 3.4 倍,资产负债率 50%。利率升财务费用直接吃利润。", "定价方式是利差:市场看的是股息率 3.1% 比十年期国债高多少。PE 23.8 倍 倒过来就是 4.2% 的盈利收益率,这是债的定价。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 57%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 28.7%,稳定度 79%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。 另外它被市场当长债替代品交易:利率上行时跟长债一起跌,不跟硬资产一起涨,这个标签贴错会亏钱。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期跟长债走,承压;国内降息周期反而受益。拿它盯国内十年期国债收益率,不要盯黄金和美元。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.4%(经营现金流/市值 8.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 28.7%,稳定度 79%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 57%,资本开支/折旧 0.76 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 23.8 倍 粗算,约 79%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -11%,最大回撤 -19%,年化波动 14%,现价在 52 周高点的 86%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / 2% / -10%。 债券代理股的波动应该低;符合。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「环境治理」107 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 27.6% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 38%。", "重庆水务:PE 比行业中位低 2.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 42.9个百分点。"]}}