{"F": {"ts_code": "601156.SH", "name": "东航物流", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "物流", "sw3": "跨境物流", "ind": "物流", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210609", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.25, "pe_ttm": 10.8462, "pb": 1.5299, "dv_ttm": 3.5169, "total_mv": 3056044.53, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.9, 27.8, 27.7, 21.5, 19.4, 19.6], "rev_series": [151.1, 222.3, 234.7, 206.2, 240.6, 242.6], "np_series": [23.7, 36.3, 36.4, 24.9, 26.9, 26.9], "roe_series": [55.1, 44.8, 29.7, 17.2, 16.3, 14.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 272.6, "np_ttm": 28.2, "ocf_ttm": 74.3, "fcf_ttm": 54.3, "fcf_yield": 17.8, "ocf_yield": 24.3, "gm_median": 21.5, "gm_std": 3.8, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": 0.8, "npm_median": 13.8, "roe_median": 17.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 26.4, "fix_assets": 97.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.53, "capex_dep": 2.14, "interest_debt": 71.6, "debt_ebitda": 1.1, "debt_ratio": 39.3, "debt_mv": 23.4, "payout": 40.1, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 1.1, "np_cagr3": -9.6, "rev_yoy": 26.6, "np_yoy": 10.1, "np_vol": 27.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 54.0, "earn_yield": 9.2, "consensus_n": 16, "fwd_pe": 10.6, "fwd_pe2": 9.2, "fwd_g1": 2.0, "fwd_g2": 16.0, "peg": 0.66, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["航空速运", 24.0], ["综合物流解决方案", 21.0], ["地面综合服务", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 11.5, "ret_prev2_year": 18.5, "ret_ytd": 8.6, "ret_pivot": 38.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.0, "ret_60": 22.0, "ret_120": 8.6, "ret_250": 29.6, "mdd_250": -21.9, "vol_250": 28.6, "pos_52w": 99.3}, "S": {"duration": 24, "pricing": 48, "hard": 42, "bondness": 57}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 40%、股息率 3.5%、营收 3 年复合 1.1%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.1 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 26%,毛利率近 5 年中位 21.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 17.8%(经营现金流/市值 24.3%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.5%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 26%,资本开支/折旧 2.14 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 10.8 倍 粗算,约 54%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 30%,最大回撤 -22%,年化波动 29%,现价在 52 周高点的 99%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 11% / 22% / 9%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「物流」48 家中位:PE 21.4 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 10.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 43%。", "东航物流:PE 比行业中位低 10.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 11.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.8个百分点。"]}}