{"F": {"ts_code": "601155.SH", "name": "新城控股", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "房地产", "sw2": "房地产开发", "sw3": "商业地产", "ind": "房地产开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20151204", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.16, "pe_ttm": 43.2605, "pb": 0.439, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 2742837.4464, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.5, 20.4, 20.0, 19.1, 19.8, 27.4], "rev_series": [1454.8, 1682.3, 1154.6, 1191.7, 890.0, 530.1], "np_series": [152.6, 126.0, 13.9, 7.4, 7.5, 6.8], "roe_series": [34.3, 22.9, 2.3, 1.2, 1.2, 1.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 485.6, "np_ttm": 6.3, "ocf_ttm": 19.6, "fcf_ttm": 19.0, "fcf_yield": 6.9, "ocf_yield": 7.2, "gm_median": 20.0, "gm_std": 3.1, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": -3.5, "npm_median": 0.8, "roe_median": 1.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 1.2, "fix_assets": 30.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.44, "capex_dep": 0.51, "interest_debt": 555.2, "debt_ebitda": 8.9, "debt_ratio": 69.7, "debt_mv": 202.4, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -22.9, "np_cagr3": -21.3, "rev_yoy": -20.2, "np_yoy": -5.1, "np_vol": 32.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 88.0, "earn_yield": 2.3, "consensus_n": 20, "fwd_pe": 30.4, "fwd_pe2": 22.5, "fwd_g1": 42.0, "fwd_g2": 35.0, "peg": 0.87, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["房地产物业销售", 20.0], ["房地产开发销售", 20.0], ["物业出租及管理", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 16.6, "ret_prev2_year": 4.8, "ret_ytd": -12.8, "ret_pivot": 17.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 10.3, "ret_60": 4.1, "ret_120": -18.8, "ret_250": -23.7, "mdd_250": -43.9, "vol_250": 42.2, "pos_52w": 67.3}, "S": {"duration": 66, "pricing": 45, "hard": 2, "bondness": 35}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 43.3 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 20.0%、固定资产占比 1%、有息负债/EBITDA 8.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 1%,毛利率近 5 年中位 20.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.9%(经营现金流/市值 7.2%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.0%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 1%,资本开支/折旧 0.51 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 43.3 倍 粗算,约 88%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -24%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / 4% / -19%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「房地产开发」83 家中位:PE 26.0 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 21.1% / 固定资产占比 2% / 分红率 36%。", "新城控股:PE 比行业中位高 17.3倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点。"]}}