{"F": {"ts_code": "601139.SH", "name": "深圳燃气", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "燃气Ⅱ", "sw3": "燃气Ⅲ", "ind": "燃气Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20091225", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.45, "pe_ttm": 11.9831, "pb": 1.1208, "dv_ttm": 2.4806, "total_mv": 1855500.2025, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.8, 19.8, 14.6, 15.5, 17.2, 17.6], "rev_series": [150.1, 214.1, 300.6, 309.3, 283.5, 298.0], "np_series": [13.2, 13.5, 12.2, 14.4, 14.6, 14.1], "roe_series": [11.6, 11.2, 9.6, 10.4, 9.7, 8.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 291.6, "np_ttm": 15.5, "ocf_ttm": 43.6, "fcf_ttm": 21.9, "fcf_yield": 11.8, "ocf_yield": 23.5, "gm_median": 17.2, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -11.1, "npm_median": 5.3, "roe_median": 9.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 49.4, "fix_assets": 234.9, "goodwill_ratio": 6.5, "pb_calc": 1.11, "capex_dep": 2.43, "interest_debt": 174.5, "debt_ebitda": 4.6, "debt_ratio": 58.7, "debt_mv": 94.1, "payout": 32.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -0.3, "np_cagr3": 4.8, "rev_yoy": -4.2, "np_yoy": 22.0, "np_vol": 9.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 58.0, "earn_yield": 8.3, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 10.3, "fwd_pe2": 9.7, "fwd_g1": 16.0, "fwd_g2": 6.0, "peg": 1.72, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 25.0], ["城市燃气", 15.0], ["管道燃气", 14.0], ["城市燃气：管道燃气", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": -4.5, "ret_prev2_year": 5.1, "ret_ytd": 0.2, "ret_pivot": 7.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.7, "ret_60": 6.8, "ret_120": -13.9, "ret_250": -2.0, "mdd_250": -27.1, "vol_250": 26.2, "pos_52w": 83.5}, "S": {"duration": 26, "pricing": 44, "hard": 79, "bondness": 60}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 12.0 倍、股息率 2.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 17.2%、固定资产占比 49%、有息负债/EBITDA 4.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 49%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 17.2%,稳定度 90%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 11.8%(经营现金流/市值 23.5%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.2%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 49%,资本开支/折旧 2.43 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 12.0 倍 粗算,约 58%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -2%,最大回撤 -27%,年化波动 26%,现价在 52 周高点的 84%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 7% / -14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「燃气Ⅱ」30 家中位:PE 22.2 / 股息率 2.5% / 毛利率 15.7% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 50%。", "深圳燃气:PE 比行业中位低 10.2倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.8个百分点。"]}}