{"F": {"ts_code": "601138.SH", "name": "工业富联", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "消费电子", "sw3": "消费电子零部件及组装", "ind": "消费电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20180608", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 63.69, "pe_ttm": 26.9409, "pb": 7.1912, "dv_ttm": 1.5388, "total_mv": 126387023.8587, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [8.4, 8.3, 7.3, 8.1, 7.3, 7.0], "rev_series": [4317.9, 4395.6, 5118.5, 4763.4, 6091.4, 9028.9], "np_series": [174.3, 200.1, 200.7, 210.4, 232.2, 352.9], "roe_series": [18.1, 18.0, 16.2, 15.6, 15.9, 22.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10999.9, "np_ttm": 469.1, "ocf_ttm": 112.2, "fcf_ttm": -88.1, "fcf_yield": -0.7, "ocf_yield": 0.9, "gm_median": 7.3, "gm_std": 0.5, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -1.1, "npm_median": 3.9, "roe_median": 16.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.7, "fix_assets": 345.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 7.19, "capex_dep": 2.62, "interest_debt": 1079.2, "debt_ebitda": 1.6, "debt_ratio": 65.7, "debt_mv": 8.5, "payout": 54.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 20.8, "np_cagr3": 20.7, "rev_yoy": 54.6, "np_yoy": 96.0, "np_vol": 18.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 81.0, "earn_yield": 3.7, "consensus_n": 21, "fwd_pe": 20.6, "fwd_pe2": 15.1, "fwd_g1": 31.0, "fwd_g2": 36.0, "peg": 0.57, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 207.2, "ret_prev2_year": 53.9, "ret_ytd": 4.3, "ret_pivot": 272.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.6, "ret_60": -7.5, "ret_120": 22.9, "ret_250": 35.5, "mdd_250": -41.2, "vol_250": 62.4, "pos_52w": 79.2}, "S": {"duration": 49, "pricing": 43, "hard": 11, "bondness": 33}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 26.9 倍、股息率 1.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 7.3%、固定资产占比 7%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 7%,毛利率近 5 年中位 7.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.7%(经营现金流/市值 0.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 7.3%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 7%,资本开支/折旧 2.62 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 26.9 倍 粗算,约 81%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 36%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 62%,现价在 52 周高点的 79%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / -8% / 23%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「消费电子」100 家中位:PE 46.5 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 44%。", "工业富联:PE 比行业中位低 19.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 13.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 18.1个百分点。"]}}