{"F": {"ts_code": "601136.SH", "name": "首创证券", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "非银金融", "sw2": "证券Ⅱ", "sw3": "证券Ⅲ", "ind": "证券Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20221222", "is_fin": true, "roles": {"fin": true, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.54, "pe_ttm": 34.3144, "pb": 3.0677, "dv_ttm": 1.0811, "total_mv": 4247600.7252, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [null, null, null, null, null, null], "rev_series": [16.6, 21.1, 15.9, 19.3, 24.2, 25.3], "np_series": [6.1, 8.6, 5.5, 7.0, 9.8, 10.6], "roe_series": [9.1, 9.2, 5.1, 5.7, 7.7, 7.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 27.9, "np_ttm": 12.4, "ocf_ttm": -4.8, "fcf_ttm": -5.8, "fcf_yield": -1.4, "ocf_yield": -1.1, "gm_median": null, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 40.6, "roe_median": 7.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.2, "fix_assets": 1.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 2.68, "capex_dep": 7.36, "interest_debt": 156.9, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 74.9, "debt_mv": 36.9, "payout": 41.7, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 16.8, "np_cagr3": 24.0, "rev_yoy": 20.2, "np_yoy": 37.0, "np_vol": 28.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 2.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 24.0], ["投资收益", 15.0], ["投资业务", 14.0], ["手续费及佣金净收入：手续费及佣金收入", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": -13.9, "ret_prev2_year": 31.4, "ret_ytd": -17.0, "ret_pivot": -7.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.4, "ret_60": 15.1, "ret_120": -10.5, "ret_250": -27.4, "mdd_250": -43.1, "vol_250": 28.2, "pos_52w": 65.5}, "S": {"duration": 58, "pricing": null, "hard": null, "bondness": 27}, "label": "金融·利差生意", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["首创证券 是证券Ⅱ。银行赚的是利差,券商保险赚的是资产端与费率,毛利率与固定资产两个轴对它没有意义。", "ROE 近 5 年中位 7.7%,PB 3.07倍,股息率 1.1%,分红率 42%。", "利率上行对银行是净息差扩张(少数受益方向);对保险是资产端浮亏、对券商是交投与融资成本。"], "加息期怎么走": "按笔记:日债/美债收益率上行期,银行股是例外的受益方向;红利型大行按'现金流红利'拿,盯息差而不盯黄金。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "金融业现金流表不适用;用盈利收益率 2.9%(1/PE)与股息率 1.1% 看。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 34.3 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -27%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 28%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 15% / -10%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「证券Ⅱ」50 家中位:PE 15.7 / 股息率 1.9% / 毛利率 10.2% / 固定资产占比 0% / 分红率 33%。", "首创证券:PE 比行业中位高 18.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 ;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点。"]}}