{"F": {"ts_code": "601133.SH", "name": "柏诚股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑装饰", "sw2": "专业工程", "sw3": "其他专业工程", "ind": "专业工程", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20230410", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 23.28, "pe_ttm": 58.9825, "pb": 4.0111, "dv_ttm": 0.5162, "total_mv": 1224938.4264, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.8, 12.3, 14.7, 11.4, 10.0, 11.9], "rev_series": [19.5, 27.4, 27.5, 39.8, 52.4, 41.3], "np_series": [1.2, 1.5, 2.5, 2.1, 2.1, 2.1], "roe_series": [14.1, 15.6, 21.5, 10.5, 7.5, 7.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 43.6, "np_ttm": 2.1, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_yield": 0.7, "ocf_yield": 0.9, "gm_median": 11.9, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": 0.9, "npm_median": 5.4, "roe_median": 10.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 3.2, "fix_assets": 1.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.01, "capex_dep": 1.75, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 48.1, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 46.7, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 14.5, "np_cagr3": -6.5, "rev_yoy": 9.4, "np_yoy": 3.0, "np_vol": 28.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.7, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 33.4, "fwd_pe2": 25.1, "fwd_g1": 77.0, "fwd_g2": 33.0, "peg": 1.01, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 37.0], ["洁净室系统集成工程", 18.0], ["洁净室系统集成", 18.0], ["机电工艺系统", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 40.1, "ret_prev2_year": -13.7, "ret_ytd": 51.9, "ret_pivot": 156.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -11.0, "ret_60": -24.5, "ret_120": 49.1, "ret_250": 75.3, "mdd_250": -50.2, "vol_250": 66.5, "pos_52w": 52.9}, "S": {"duration": 77, "pricing": 45, "hard": 5, "bondness": 25}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 59.0 倍、股息率 0.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 11.9%、固定资产占比 3%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 3%,毛利率近 5 年中位 11.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.7%(经营现金流/市值 0.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.9%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 3%,资本开支/折旧 1.75 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 59.0 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 75%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 66%,现价在 52 周高点的 53%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -11% / -24% / 49%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专业工程」39 家中位:PE 40.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 13.6% / 固定资产占比 10% / 分红率 38%。", "柏诚股份:PE 比行业中位高 18.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.1个百分点。"]}}